MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 4

Friday, June 24, 2016 2:24 PM GMT

This is the fourth and final part of a series of articles that deals with the correlation between TRGS (team record games started) numbers and their OPS counterparts. 

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 1
 

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 2
 

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 3

 

To refresh your memory once again about the OPS, it is a combination of OBP (on base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage) for either a team, a hitter, or a pitcher. This final article continues to prove the value of the OPS as the greatest correlator of success and failure. 

As a rejoinder, I mention again that although a pitcher’s home/road OPS has a meaningful influence on his TRGS, this number is also influenced by a team’s batting OPS and a team’s bullpen OPS. TRGS is a leading barometer of past and future success. It is far more representative than the personal W/L record of a starting pitcher.

In the part 4 chart below, I isolate nearly 20 pitchers whose road OPS is .850 or higher. This is more than 100 points above the average OPS for the year, which has now risen to higher than .730 entering this week’s play. To qualify, each pitcher must have at least 5 road starts to be included in the research. The chart also indicates the pitcher’s ERA, his WHIP, and his BAA. With all the pitching data available, I will then provide conclusions. Along with these, I will give instructions to the possible use in your own personal handicapping. 

Though some pitchers may not be in the current rotation, keep this list at the ready, as they may at any time be inserted into the rotation. The list is in order beginning with the worst OPS.
 

Pitcher

TRGS

OPS

ERA

WHIP

BAA

C. Young

0-5

1.208

9.70

1.82

.340

Simon

2-3

1.106

10.80

2.25

.381

Graveman

2-5

1.047

7.03

1.88

.338

Niese

4-3

.997

5.03

1.65

.313

Nicasio

1-5

.995

7.14

1.66

.292

Moore

0-5

.952

6.35

1.76

.342

Liriano

3-4

.936

6.98

1.78

.286

Archer

3-5

.934

6.75

1.79

.308

Fiers

1-4

.931

6.43

1.46

.321

M. Wright

3-2

.916

6.15

1.56

.297

Perralta

2-4

.913

5.46

1.79

.333

An. Sanchez

1-5

.911

6.75

1.59

.303

Locke

2-6

.896

7.36

1.64

.316

Walker

1-5

.893

4.44

1.37

.267

E. Santana

1-5

.879

4.30

1.60

.319

A. Wainwright

5-2

.870

6.03

1.41

.294

Shields

1-5

.855

7.18

1.63

.290

Eikhoff

1-5

.833

5.24

1.47

.292

 

These numbers are even better than any in the first three parts of the series. Simply by playing against any of these pitchers who have a .850 OPS or higher on the road, you would be 78-33 (70%). We won’t even go any further to look for subsets with these numbers. Rather, we will move directly to potential ways you can profit from these winning numbers on MLB odds.

With play on and against numbers as good as I have shown you in the 4 parts of this article, you can imagine that there has been a line adjustment by the line maker. Is there still a way we can profit from this information while retaining our value? The answer comes with the use of my unique run line research, which isolates teams who, in varying home/road situations, have won or lost their games by 2 or more runs 80% of the time.

Putting these two lists together can often provide a huge profit in run line underdog scenarios. Simply find games in which one of our play on or play against home/road pitchers are in their preferred situation, then use my run line records to confirm the play on or against situation for your MLB picks. It will result in huge profit for you if you bet at your sportsbook of choice.