MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 2

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 17, 2016 4:00 PM GMT

Friday, Jun. 17, 2016 4:00 PM GMT

Aside from the OPS, or other pitching indices, the TRGS is influenced by team batting and team bullpen OPS. That’s what makes the TRGS a truer barometer of a pitcher’s success.

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 1

 

This is the second of four articles in which I show the correlation between TRGS (Team Record in Games Started) numbers and their OPS counterparts. Part 1 showed the direct correlation between pitchers with a LOW OPS at home, and a POSITIVE home TRGS. In part 2, we go to the opposite end of the spectrum to show the correlation between pitchers with a HIGH OPS at home, and a NEGATIVE TRGS at home.

For those who are not familiar with the acronym OPS, OPS numbers are a combination of OBP (on base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage). I have proven in articles in recent seasons that more than any other pitching indicator, the OPS has the greatest correlation to success and failure. 

In the chart below, we will isolate 20 pitchers with a home OPS of .850 or higher. That is 120 points MORE than the average OPS of .730. Each pitcher must have at least 5 home starts to be included in the research. The chart will also include the pitcher’s ERA, his WHIP, his BAA, as well as his team’s home batting OPS, and overall relief OPS. With all this data available, we will then provide conclusions.

Though some pitchers may not be in the current rotation, keep this list at the ready for any time they are reinserted into the rotation.

 

Pitcher

TRGS

OPS

ERA

WHIP

BAA

Home Batting

OPS

Team Relief

OPS

Peralta

3-4

1.074

7.79

1.96

.379

.722

.759

Simon

1-5

.968

7.47

1.72

.320

.713

.883

S. Miller

1-5

.966

6.97

1.81

.325

.759

.755

Santiago

3-3

.961

7.67

1.56

.280

.712

.705

Corbin

0-6

.957

7.53

1.62

.319

.759

.755

Pelfrey

3-3

.954

6.61

1.59

.341

.760

.752

Hughes

2-4

.910

6.32

1.53

.331

.702

.815

Duffey

1-4

.908

6.67

1.52

.320

.702

.815

Pineda

3-4

.906

6.20

1.48

.295

.693

.663

Morgan

1-4

.896

7.09

1.50

.306

.649

.745

Shields

1-6

.893

4.99

1.64

.308

.690

.675

Blair

1-4

.887

6.08

1.73

.300

.613

.757

Ray

3-4

.875

5.64

1.64

.298

.759

.755

Iwakuma

3-3

.868

5.17

1.28

.297

.769

.642

Bettis

3-2

.855

6.41

1.50

.327

.785

.743

Weaver

3-3

.855

5.14

1.37

.293

.712

.705

Hamels

5-2

.854

4.35

1.50

.275

.744

.812

Cain

2-4

.853

4.72

1.51

.314

.713

.710

Buchholz

2-5

.849

6.30

1.55

.277

.850

.665

 

In part 1 of this article, we found that the TRGS for our top 20 pitchers at home with an OPS of .600 or less was 81-39. By adding the TRGS for the 20 WORST home pitchers in MLB, we find their combined TRGS to be 41-75 (35%), virtually opposite of our 20 leading pitchers. This is another solid indicator that we are on the right track when using the OPS as a measurement of success. As in part 1 of this article, we can isolate some areas of even greater success using other indices when combined with pitchers who have a home OPS of .850 or higher. 

•36-73 (33%) if our home pitcher has an ERA of .450 or higher
•10-34 (23%) if our home pitcher has a WHIP of 1.60 or higher
•19-51 (27%) if our home pitcher has a BAA of .300 or higher

As was the case with our top 20 home pitchers, there is little correlation between a home team’s batting OPS, or the overall relief OPS, and our home pitcher’s TRGS.

In parts 3 and 4 of this series, I will examine the correlation between pitchers with a POOR OPS on the road, as well as pitchers with a GOOD OPS on the road vis a vis these pitchers’ TRGS. 

Both part 1 and 2 of this article give you the best 20 and worst 20 home starters in the league through June 15, 2016. These are a valuable reference tool when you look at the MLB Odds and place your MLB Picks.

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