MLB Betting: Cincinnati Reds Rebuilding Strong Player Base For Upcoming Season

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 29, 2016 8:25 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 29, 2016 8:25 PM UTC

The LT Profits Group are providing team profiles for all 30 teams in advance of opening day of the 2016 season to help with your MLB picks. Today they look at the Cincinnati Reds.

We are only five weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, which begins with three games Sunday, April 3rd with the rest of the league beginning play Monday, April 4th. In an attempt to assist with your MLB picks, we are here presenting team profiles for all 30 Major League Baseball teams prior to opening day. Today we profile the Cincinnati Reds, who finished fifth and last in the National League Central in 2015 at 64-98.

To begin, here is a summary of the Cincinnati betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that these stats are always for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle Sports.


Cincinnati Reds 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record  34-47  30-51  64-98
Units Won/Lost    -14.96  -16.14  -31.10
Over/Under  46-31-4    37-42-2    83-73-6  

The Reds did not finish with the worst record in baseball last year as they were actually one game better than the Philadelphia Phillies, but no team was worse from a betting perspective as the -31.10 units lost overall was easily the worst in the league. The Reds were probably not expected to be as bad as and they were, and they may have had an impact in the oddsmakers being a bit slow to adjust their lines even as they were constantly losing.

Next we move on to the Reds’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.


2015 Cincinnati Reds Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .248  25th
Runs per Game  3.95  26th
Home Runs  167  13th
OPS >  .706  22nd
ERA n>  4.35  26th
WHIP >  1.36  25th
Bullpen ERA  3.96  3.96

It is pretty apparent from the raw rankings here that the Reds were not a good baseball team, but things look even worse when delving into deeper, more advanced statistics. To wit, Cincinnati put together the worst historical clutch hitting performance ever recorded, with only Eugenio Suarez posting a slightly positive Clutch hitting rating while the bigger Cincinnati starts were all very negative in that category, which is why the Reds lost so many one-run games.

And now we take a look at various Cincinnati Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds boards on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.


2016 Cincinnati Reds World Series Futures

5 Dimes  +15000  
Bovada  +12500  
BetOnline    +17500  
Heritage  +9500  

Unlike last year when they were overrated, the 2016 MLB Futures for the Reds seem to more accurately reflect how bad this team should be this year, as in the only two significant off-season moves they made, they traded away the defending Home Run Derby Champion Todd Frazier and close Aroldis Chapman and received seemingly very little in return for them. Thus, do not look for much improvement.


2016 Cincinnati Reds Batting Forecast
Cincinnati is not totally devoid of talent offensively as Joey Votto had a great year last season playing for a last place team while Jay Bruce, Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, and Brandon Phillips are all at worst average Major League players. However, all also showed some slippage last year and this is not the youngest lineup in the league.

Also, Bruce has been the subject of trade rumors recently as Cincinnati seems committed to go into full rebuilding mode. Among the younger payers, the aforementioned Suarez may have the most promise if he wins the every-day job in left field and Adam Duvall could have a bright future, although he may be a year away from beginning to realize his potential.


2016 Cincinnati Reds Pitching Forecast
When the Reds traded away Johnny Cueto at the trading deadline last year, they never did fill the void left by the departure of one of the best pitchers in baseball in return for some prospects and they did nothing to improve the starting pitching over the winter. The return of Homer Bailey from elbow surgery around mid-May could help, but until then a rotation that includes Anthony DeSclafani, John Lamb and Brandon Finnegan will not scare anyone.

And now there is uncertainty in the bullpen also with Chapman gone, although Manager Bryan Price did announce that J.J. Hoover will begin the season as the closer. Price did not exactly exude confidence though as his announcement was more like the job was Hoover’s to lose with Cincinnati not really having other seemingly viable options right now.

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