MLB Betting: Cardinals & Marlins Clash In Race For Wild Card Spot

Cardinals vs Marlins

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, July 29, 2016 4:38 PM GMT

Friday, Jul. 29, 2016 4:38 PM GMT

St. Louis and Miami continue their 4-game set with the 2nd game of the series. Last night, the Cards jumped to a 5-0 lead against Miami’s ace, Fernandez. Here's our Free MLB Pick

St. Louis Cardinals (Leake) (-105) vs Miami Marlins (Urena)

It dropped Fernandez to 26-2 when pitching from his home mound. The onslaught was led by Diaz, a childhood friend of Fernandez, who hit a homerun, a double and had 3 RBIs against his long-time friend.   

Now, the teams are tied at 55-47 for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cards are 6 ½ games behind Chicago, while Miami trails Washington by 5 games.  They each trail the Dodgers by 2 games for the 1st Wild Card spot.  We continue to ride the BUY signal on St. Louis, who is now on an 8-3 run and super-surging as expected!   Both, the fundamentals and the starting pitching are in place for another St. Louis win tonight.

For the year to date, the Cards hold a batting OPS edge on the Marlins of .778 to .737.  But, this grows even larger with home/road numbers that favor the Cards .813 to .710.   That makes sense because the St. Louis’ road record is 30-17 (a 64% winning clip) which is by far the best in baseball.  The Cards also have an edge in the bullpen with a .642 to .681 relief OPS.

There is an additional edge with starting pitchers in this matchup.  I give Urena his due, as in his most recent 2 starts, standing 11 2/3 IP, he has a 1.54 ERA.  But, this is his 5th recall to the Majors and for the season, he is 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA.  Those numbers are far dichotomous to the current form and history of Mike Leake, who starts for St. Louis tonight.  His excellent current form is characterized by the fact he has not walked a batter in 25 IP.  A strong history shows that he is 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA and .194 BAA against Miami, the best of any Miami opponent.  That excellence continues at this site, where in 3 starts, he has recorded a trio of victories with a 0.44 ERA.   

All the above is good enough for our money line play on St. Louis tonight. Those of you who are aggressive will note that 24 of 30 St. Louis’ victories (though none of the last 3) on the road have come by 2 or more runs.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB Pick on the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. 

 

Free MLB Picks: Cardinals -1½ (+155)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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