Brewers vs. Cubs Picks: Division Rivals Host Our Run Line Crusher Of The Day

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 16, 2016 6:53 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2016 6:53 PM UTC

Regardless of the results of Game 1 in this day/night doubleheader, I am strongly favoring the pitching matchup of Hammel over Anderson. Here is a free pick on tonight's game.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs (GAME 2 DH)

The Brewers would like nothing more than to defeat their division rival, who is the best team in baseball. But, the Cubs have regained their early season form and have advantages across the board.

Let’s give Milwaukee their due at 52-64. This team is doing no worse than matching long-term expectations. But, it is tough to ignore the 19-35 road record, along with the fact that their bullpen has been in a shambles for a large part of the season. 

The Chicago Cubs met expectations by bolting to a mind-boggling 24-6 start to the season. Complacency and injuries followed a long run of mediocrity in May and June. In that stretch, the Cubs were a sub.500 team at 27-29. But, the return to health and the fact that they realized both the Cardinals and Pirates were nipping at their heels, has spurred a July/August run for the Cubs that see them enter today’s actions on positive runs of 22-8 and 14-3. This includes a pair of weekend losses to St. Louis when they suffered a pair of bullpen meltdowns. But, the savvy managerial talents of Maddon and the addition of fire-balling closer, Chapman, should soon remedy any of those deficiencies. They are clearly better than the Brewers in that department. Of greater concern may be the return to complacency by Chicago, now that their lead has grown once again to healthy double digits over St. Louis and Pittsburgh.  

Starting pitching clearly favors the Cubs in this one. For Milwaukee, Anderson is just 4-10 with a 4.93 ERA. He has worked no more than 6 IP in 9 of 10 recent starts. With an overworked bullpen (Garza starts for the Brewers in the opener), the Cubs could have a huge outburst of runs in the late innings. No such issues figure to occur for the Cubs. Hammel is 12-5 with a 2.90 ERA for the season. He has won his last 5 starts and enters on a run of 15 scoreless innings. With an ultra-strong history vs. Milwaukee of 9-1 with a 2.72 ERA, he figures to be in command.

We lay the runs in this matchup, noting not only the huge edge the Cubs have across the board in this matchup but also the fact that 57 of 73 Chicago wins have come by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Chicago Cubs tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 +100
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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