MLB Betting: Best And Worst Run Line Results

Joe Gavazzi

Sunday, July 5, 2015 12:23 AM GMT

We compile a report on the best and worst run line results from the first half of the season by tracking results for each day to determine if there is value playing a game at the run line odds.

This is a report on the best and worst run line results from approximately the first half of the 2015 schedule, ending June 30th 2015.  For the last 6 seasons, I have tracked run line results for each day of the MLB season. I use a unique method of tracking, which allows the handicapper to make his selection on the game using proven methods. He can then apply my run line records to determine if he believes there is value playing the game at the run line MLB odds

 

Before I begin the results, allow me to explain the way in which the games are logged. Each team is tracked in four different categories based on their result of each game. The four categories are as follows:  

 

- HOME WINS by 2 or more runs vs. exactly 1 run

- HOME LOSSES by exactly 1 run vs. 2 or more runs

- AWAY WINS by 2 or more runs vs. exactly 1 run

- AWAY LOSSES by exactly 1 run vs. 2 or more runs

 

The overall results for the 6 year period have been remarkably consistent. With teams winning their home wins by 2 or more runs (66%) of the time and road team winning their away games by 2 or more runs (74%) of the time. For the 2015 season through June 30th, home teams have won 412 of 625 wins (66%) by 2 or more runs. In a similar way through the same date, road teams have won 395 of 534 games (74%) by 2 or more runs. These numbers have remained consistent with previous years despite reduced scoring in the 2015 season, which shows little more than an average of 8 RPG. The higher percentage on the road is a function of the fact that the home team does not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are leading the game. And that road teams look to extend the margin in the game, knowing that the home team bats in the bottom of the inning.  

 

Now, let’s examine the four categories using the following parameters as our guidelines.  

 

TEAMS WHO WIN THEIR HOME GAMES 74% OR MORE OF THE TIME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS

TEAM

HOME WINS BY 2 OR MORE RUNS

HOME WINS BY EXACTLY 1 RUN

LA Dodgers

20

7

San Francisco

16

5

NY Yankees

16

5

Tampa Bay

16

5

Toronto

18

7

Kansas City

18

4

Oakland

12

3

Houston

21

6

 

TEAMS WHO LOSE THEIR HOME GAMES 80% OR MORE OF THE TIME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS

TEAM

LOSE HOME BY EXACTLY 1 RUN

LOSE HOME BY 2 OR MORE RUNS

Atlanta

2

14

Miami

4

18

Washington

2

12

Milwaukee

3

23

San Francisco

4

16

San Diego

4

17

Boston

3

17

Baltimore

2

13

Minnesota

2

13

Cleveland

3

20

Kansas City

2

11

Texas

3

16

Seattle

4

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TEAMS WHO WIN THEIR AWAY GAMES BY TWO OR MORE RUNS 80% OR MORE OF THE TIME (Minimum 10 Wins)

TEAM

ROAD WINS BY 2 OR MORE RUNS

ROAD WINS BY EXACTLY 1 RUN

NY Mets

9

2

St. Louis

19

3

LA Dodgers

14

3

Baltimore

13

3

Toronto

14

2

Minnesota

13

3

Cleveland

16

4

Kansas City

18

4

LA Angels

13

3

Oakland

17

3

 

TEAMS WHO LOSE THEIR AWAY GAMES BY 2 OR MORE RUNS 74% OR MORE OF THE TIME

TEAM

LOSE AWAY BY EXACTLY 1 RUN

LOSE AWAY BY 2 OR MORE RUNS

Washington

5

15

Colorado

3

18

Kansas City

4

13

 

Ways to use these numbers … handicap the selected game to determine your projected winner or loser then refer to the chart above (remember you will need to update the records daily, as these are through June 30th 2015) to determine if your selected PLAY ON or PLAY AGAINST team qualifies in one of the categories above. This will solidify your selection using it on the run line, usually at an underdog price .

Finally, here are some conclusions for teams who have been consistent throughout the season both home and away on the run line. 

 

LA Dodgers … 34 of 44 LAD victories have been by 2 or more runs

NY Yankees … 31 of 41 victories have been by 2 or more runs

Toronto … 32 of 41 victories have been by 2 or more runs

Kansas City … 36 of 44 victories have been by 2 or more runs

Oakland … 29 of 35 victories have been by 2 or more runs

Houston … 35 of 46 victories have been by 2 or more runs (including all 15 in June)

 

Other streaking June teams with 80% or better records for the month:

 

Washington … 12 of 15 wins by 2 or more runs

Cincinnati … 8 of 8 home wins by 2 or more runs

San Francisco … 11 of 12 wins by 2 or more runs

San Diego … 10 of 12 wins by 2 or more runs

NY Yankees … 12 of 15 wins by 2 or more runs

Baltimore … 14 of 18 wins by 2 or more runs

Minnesota … 9 of 11 wins by 2 or more runs

Detroit … 9 of 11 wins by 2 or more runs

Kansas City … 12 of 15 wins by 2 or more runs

Oakland … 12 of 15 wins by 2 or more runs

Houston … 15 of 15 wins by 2 or more runs

 

At the other end of the spectrum, consider the following:

 

Miami … 12 of 15 losses by 2 or more runs

Washington … 10 of 12 losses by 2 or more runs

Milwaukee … 12 of 14 losses by 2 or more runs

Colorado … 8 of 8 road losses by 2 or more runs

Arizona … 13 of 14 losses by 2 or more runs

San Diego … 12 of 15 losses by 2 or more runs

Minnesota … 14 of 17 losses by 2 or more runs

Cleveland … 13 of 15 losses by 2 or more runs

Kansas City … 9 of 11 losses by 2 or more runs

Seattle … 13 of 16 losses by 2 or more runs

 

GOOD LUCK with your use of these charts in connection with your handicapping as you get ready to place your MLB picks. Remember to update your records every day or stay tuned to this bureau for run line winners for the balance of the 2015 season.