MLB Betting: Best 'Under' Picks For Your Sunday Slate Selection

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, April 10, 2016 10:54 AM GMT

Terrible news for the Cubs as young lefty slugger Kyle Schwarber has been lost for the season with major knee ligament damage. So, here are my top three totals picks for Sunday with MLB odds.

Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
This is the only interleague series of the weekend so be aware that Houston is without the designated hitter. That would usually be Evan Gattis, but he's currently on the disabled list. The Astros start reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel  here. He beat the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in last year's wild-card game and did it again in New York's home opener Tuesday, allowing two runs and three hits over seven innings, striking out five. Keuchel was a bit wild at first but it was brutally cold so that might have been the reason. Keuchel had four walks in the game and issued only four walks once in his previous 47 career starts (June 20, 2015, at Seattle).

The lefty settled down and retired the final 11 batters he faced Tuesday. Keuchel hasn't faced Milwaukee since 2012 when Houston was still an NL team. Aaron Hill has faced him more than any Brewer, going 5-for-14 with a homer and three RBIs. Ryan Braun is 3-for-6. The Brewers counter with probably their best pitcher, Jimmy Nelson. He was a tough-luck loser Tuesday against the Giants, allowing two runs and five hits over 7.1 innings. Nelson didn't throw a single pitch past the seventh inning of any of his final 15 starts last season. A total of 59 of his 88 pitches were strikes Tuesday. Nelson has never faced Houston. My MLB pick is to go for the 'Under.' The 'under' is 11-3 in Keuchel's past 14 Sunday starts.

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MLB Pick: Under 7.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Schwarber hadn't done anything yet this season but hit 16 homers with 43 RBIs in just 232 at-bats as a rookie in 2015. He was awesome in the playoffs, hitting a Cubs-record five postseason homers in nine games. He will be mostly missed against right-handed pitchers, against whom he hit .278 with 14 homers in 2015 compared to .143 with two homers against lefties. He probably was going to sit against many lefties this year. Jorge Soler will the primary  left fielder now.

The Cubs shouldn't need much offense to win Sunday as they roll out reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta. He had the best second half of a season in MLB history last year and picked right up where he left off on Monday by shutting out the Angels in Anaheim over seven innings on  just two hits, striking out six. Of his 89 pitches, just 25 were balls. Arrieta faced Arizona twice last year and was 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. He allowed 11 hits and struck out 14 in 14.0 innings.

The Diamondbacks traded a ton to Atlanta this offseason to get Shelby Miller, and Miller struggled in his Arizona debut on Tuesday vs. Colorado. He was raked for six runs and eight hits in six innings but avoided a loss thanks to his offense. All six of the runs came in the fourth inning from three Rockies home runs. Miller's average fastball velocity was down from 95.1 mph last year to 93.7 mph Tuesday. He only had one start last season with fewer swinging strikes than he had Tuesday. That has to be a worry. Miller was 0-2 vs. the Cubs last season despite a very good 2.92 ERA. Soler is 4-for-9 off him with two homers. The under is 8-2-1 in Arrieta's past 11 overall, which makes this a valuable pick to back on the MLB odds boards.

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MLB Pick: Under 8
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Your ESPN Sunday Night Game. It will certainly be chilly in Detroit by the 8 p.m. first pitch, with forecasts calling for high 30s and a rain/snow mix and wins of 18 mph. But they will try hard to get this in since it's the Yankees' only visit of the season to Motown. Each team's ace is on the mound. That's Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees. He pitched well for the first five innings of New York's home opener Tuesday vs. Houston but gave up a solo homer to  Carlos Correa in the sixth to tie the game at two and was pulled after 5.2 innings, having allowed two runs on four hits with four strikeouts. Giving up homers has been a problem of late for Tanaka as Correa's dinger was the 11th home run Tanaka had allowed in his past 11 starts. Tanaka was 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in two starts against the Tigers last year. J.D. Martinez could be in line for a big night as he's 4-for-6 with two homers and two doubles off him.

Detroit's Justin Verlander hadn't allowed a hit entering the sixth inning Tuesday in Miami but surrendered a run-scoring single to Marcell Ozuna and a two-run homer to Giancarlo Stanton in that inning. Verlander finishes six allowing those three runs on three hits, striking out five and walking two in a no-decision. Verlander was rocked in his lone 2015 start vs. New York, allowing six runs and 10 hits in 6.2 innings. Alex Rodriguez kills him, going 11-for-32 with five homers. Weather will really help pitchers. The 'under' is 4-1 in Tanaka's past five with four days of rest. 

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MLB Pick: Under 7.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage