MLB Betting: Baseball 2013 Futures update and value picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, April 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Apr. 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Where does the value still lie on the MLB Futures nearly one month into the 2013 season? Here are six teams that still have nice World Series odds relative to their chances of winning it all.

We are just about one month into the 2013 Major League Baseball season, and although many MLB Future prices have changed since the beginning of the year, we still feel there are some teams that still offer value to win the World Series even at their current prices.

Of course the flip side of that is that there are also teams that have become overvalued relative to their true chances of winning the World Series, and some teams we would put in that category based on the current MLB World Series odds at 5 Dimes are the Detroit Tigers (+675), Washington Nationals (+1000) and the Cincinnati Reds (+1100), none of whom we would touch at those current prices.

Obviously, that does not mean that neither of those teams is capable of going all the way, but rather it means that we think their odds of doing so are considerably longer than those odds being currently offered.

So who do we think actually offers value? Well, here are our six MLB picks that we feel are undervalued right now, including one monstrous longshot. We have also provided the odds for each team to win the World Series, which are current at 5 Dimes as of Friday, April 26th.

Texas Rangers (+1150): The Rangers have had one of the most potent lineups in baseball in recent seasons although the offense was off to a slow start this season while adjusting to life without Josh Hamilton, who moved on to what we feel is another overrated team in the Los Angeles Angels. The offense is now starting to heat up though, but the real story this year is the Texas pitching. The Rangers are fourth in the Major Leagues and second in the American League behind only the Chicago White Sox in team ERA at a sparkling 2.15, and they are led by a darkhorse Cy Young candidate in Yu Darvish, who has overcome the control problems that plagued him for much of his first season in the Major Leagues last year. Darvish is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA and a miniscule 0.80 WHIP with a fantastic 49 strikeouts in 32.2 innings against just 10 walks! Also closer Joe Nathan is a perfect seven for seven in save chances while posting a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and if the pitching continues to hold up, the Rangers may have the best chance to win it all at a nice price because it is just about a given that the offense will continue to improve.

New York Yankees (+2200): We must confess that this is probably the first time in history that we consider the mighty New York Yankees to be undervalued, but we feel they truly are considering they are off to a fairly good start with so many of their superstars on the Disabled List. New York currently has Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira on the DL, which would be crippling to most other teams, and yet the Yankees are only 2½ games out of first place nearing the end of April, leaving them in good shape for when those players start to come back. Even without those stars, the Yankees are eight in the majors in scoring, second in home runs, seventh on batting average and fourth in OPS. Also, it is obviously a godsend to have Mariano Rivera back in the bullpen, as he does not appear to have lost a thing at the age of 43 after missing most of last season with a torn ACL, as he is seven for seven in save opportunities with a 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 8.00 strikeouts per nine innings.

St. Louis Cardinals (+1500): We do not buy the Cincinnati Reds being shorter odds to win the World Series as their National League Central mates the Cardinals, as we feel St. Louis and Atlanta are the two best teams in the National League and are on a collision course to meet in the NLCS. The Cardinals are sold offensively, ranking seventh in the majors in runs scored, but the real story is their starting pitching, which has an incredible cumulative 2.35 ERA. Adam Wainwright has been one of the best starters in the league this season as he is stronger than ever now that he is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and he is one of four St. Louis starters with an ERA below 3.00, with the fifth starter Lance Lynn being at 3.68! We would absolutely love the Cardinals if they had a better bullpen, but perhaps that unit will improve now that the flame-throwing Trevor Rosenthal has been named the closer. In a recent appearance, Rosenthal threw 12 fastballs and 11 of them were clocked at 99 MPH or faster.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000): If you are looking for an overpriced bomb to include in your future wagers, then the Diamondbacks are your team at 40/1 odds! Anything could happen once you get into the playoffs, and right now the Diamondbacks are our choice to win the National League West, which if nothing else could set up great hedging possibilities at this enormous price, although we do think that Arizona’s pitching is good enough in a short series to potentially disrupt our Atlanta vs. St. Louis NLCS forecast. The Diamondbacks are fourth in the National League in team ERA, and unlike the Cardinals, Arizona has a strong bullpen that ranks third in the league in pen ERA. The best part of the pitching staff is that ace Ian Kennedy currently has just the fourth lowest ERA among the starters behind Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill and Patrick Corbin, but Kennedy has turned things around lately, giving the Snakes a much underrated starting quartet. The D-Backs also have a Rookie of the Year candidate in Dutch-born shortstop Didi Gregorius.

Oakland Athletics (+1375): We love this Athletics team quite a bit, but the problem is they may have to settle for a wild card being in the same division as Texas, and if that happens, having to play a one-game winner-take-all wild card game would add a lot of volatility to their chances. Of course, a win in the wild card game, or even better beating out Texas for the division would make this play all worth it at these odds. The Oakland organization has been known for its pitching for many years, which makes sense when playing in a spacious ballpark, but the Athletics started to improve offensively last season and they have taken things to new heights this season, ranking second in the Major Leagues in both runs scored and in OPS while leading the majors in stolen bases. The pitching has actually been disappointing so far, but that should come around with fine young arms like Tom Milone, Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin, and also Bartolo Colon has continued to be quite serviceable while adding some veteran leadership.

Atlanta Braves (+675): You may be wondering why we waited until now to discuss the Braves, who we feel are the best team in the National League, and the only reason for that is the +675 price tag has just marginal value in our estimation, but it is still value nonetheless so Atlanta is still playable, but you better hurry before the price drops some more. The Braves helped their offense by adding both of the Upton Brothers during the off-season and just a little offensive help is all the Braves needed given their fine pitching staff. That pitching has picked up right where it left off last year as the Braves currently lead the majors in both staff ERA and bullpen ERA, and we do not foresee that stopping any time soon barring injury. Atlanta also leads the Major Leagues on home runs with Justin Upton having 11 of them already, and the offense ranks third in the bigs in OPS.

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