MLB Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks Team Profile 2016

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, March 10, 2016 1:00 AM GMT

The 2016 MLB season starts on Sunday, April 3rd and the LT Profits Group are profiling every MLB team to help with your MLB picks. Today they profile the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We are a tad more than three weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, as the season begins with three games on Sunday, April 3rd, while the rest of the league begins play Monday, April 4th. So in an attempt to assist with your MLB picks, we are profiling all 30 Major League Baseball teams in advance of opening day, and today we profile the Arizona Diamondbacks, who finished in third place in the National League West in 2015 at 79-83.

To begin, here is a summary of the Arizona betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that these stats are always for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record  39-42  40-41  79-83
Units Won/Lost    -5.31  +6.85  +1.54
Over/Under  40-35-6    40-39-2    80-74-8  

 

The Diamondbacks showed much improvement in 2015 after finishing in last place in the National League West two years ago, but what is notable is they were losing propositions at home going 39-42 for a loss of -5.31 units, but were actually one game better on the road at 40-41 while showing a profit of +6.85 units. Still, their overall net profit of +1.54 units for the season commendably ranked 10th in all of baseball.

Next up, we move on to the Diamondbacks’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.

 

2015 Arizona Diamondbacks Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .264  7th
Runs per Game  4.44  8th
Home Runs  154  17th
OPS  .738  9th
ERA  4.05  16th
WHIP  1.33  22nd
Bullpen ERA  3.56  13th

 

It makes sense that the hitting was ahead of the pitching for the Diamondbacks last year considering that they have one of the premier hitters in all of baseball in Paul Goldschmidt. Still, the sub-par pitching did probably cost the Snakes a winning record last year, as the starting pitching combined for just around a 3.0 WAR, which was the third worst such mark in the entire Major Leagues.

Moving on, we now take a look at various Arizona Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.

 

2016 Arizona Diamondbacks World Series Futures

   Odds
5Dimes  +2500  
Bovada  +2500  
BetOnline    +2500  
Heritage  +2400  

 

The consensus is that the Diamondbacks were the biggest winners during this off-season, adding one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Zack Greinke and another frontline starter in Shelby Miller, as well as getting quality bullpen help in set-up man Tyler Clippard. Can it be that Arizona is an overlay at 25/1 odds to win the World Series? That is quite possible considering the D-Backs may have become legitimate threats to win the NL West Division.

 

2016 Arizona Diamondbacks Batting Forecast
Goldschmidt remains one of the best all around players in the Major Leagues as his ZiPS projection is a forecasted WAR of 4.8, but do not forget about A.J. Pollock either, as he had a breakthrough season last year and forecasts to a 4.3 WAR himself this season. Just about the only negative offensively is the loss of Ender Inciarte.

However, that may be a bigger loss than some may believe, as Inciarte has had a WAR higher than 3.0 each of the last two seasons and now the only other Arizona batter forecasted to have a WAR higher than 2.0 other than Goldschmidt and Pollock is David Peralta at 2.5. The Diamondbacks are hoping for improvement from Yasmany Tomas, who has yet to harness his vast potential.

 

2016 Arizona Diamondbacks Pitching Forecast
The Arizona starting staff could go from being one of the worst in baseball last year to one of the better ones in the National League this season. Greinke makes a great ace with a forecasted WAR of 5.2 and Miller’s projected WAR of 3.0 virtually matches that of the entire rotation last year. Throw in Patrick Corbin being one year stronger after returning from Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season and the optimism seems justified.

The bullpen should also be better with Clippard setting up closer Brad Ziegler, and if you believe the ZiPS Projections, Silvio Bracho and Andrew Chapin actually have the two highest WAR predictions of the unit, making this another Arizona strength.