MLB Betting Angles: Fading The Mets As Citi Field Underdogs Can Be Profitable

Jay Pryce

Friday, July 3, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 3, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

The Mets cannot score. What is new? In this write-up, we offer an angle to profit from the team’s hitting misfortunes when they're underdogs at Citi Field.

The Mets are a mess. They lost three straight to the much-improved Chicago Cubs at home this past week, dropping 3.5 games back to the injury-plagued Washington Nationals in the NL East. Astonishingly, Terry Collins' men scored only one run in 29 innings during the series. The Mets offense has stunk for several years now, and somehow it is withering away to PONY-league quality as of late. In the past two weeks, New York is carrying a .180 batting average! All the while, GM Sandy Alderson and the Mets ownership have done zero to address their current run-scoring issues—to the chagrin of fans and local media—and time may be running out to find any significant help. Disembarking on a mini West-coast road swing before a three-night home stand against the Arizona Diamondbacks to close out the first half of the season, the Mets face a very tough schedule heading in to the trade deadline, playing the Nationals twice, in addition to hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Chances of the team being in a position to make a concerted run for the division title, and trading for some bats in the next few weeks, is growing slimmer by the day. Alderson will more than likely fire Terry Collins in the near future, and the Mets brass will promise to address their run-scoring woes in 2016. All the merrier for sports investors, as we wish to share with you a simple, yet profitable angle fading New York's bats. 

Since replacing Omar Minaya before the start of the 2011 season, the Mets have lost 66% of their nearly 160 games as a home underdog under Alderson's leadership. New York scores only 3.2 runs a game under this situation, returning roughly 18% of one's investment if fading. Sadly, the Mets' hitting has regressed season after season in this scenario. In 2011, the team averaged 4.3 runs as a home dog. Since then, their runs per game dwindle: in 2012, 3.4; in 2013 and 2014, 2.9; and 0.9 thus far in 2015. The team's run-scoring issues are obviously nothing new. In the last three calendar years to date, Mets' hitters are 29th in wOBA (.296) in the majors, only beating the Florida Marlins during this period. For those more interested in traditional slash-line statistics, they rank last in batting average (.237) and next to last in OPS (.671) over this span. One angle to play that may improve one's confidence and profit margins when the Mets are a home dog, is to back the away team when they enter the game averaging more runs on the year than New York. Under these conditions, opponents have won 76% of the time out of nearly 70 games, returning close to 34% of one's investment.

There are many factors as to why this wager continues to be profitable for bettors. For one, the Mets lineups over the last several seasons are not tooled to overcome Citi Field's favoring to pitchers. One of the ballpark's few weak-spots to batters, for example, is deep, fly balls hit to left-center field. Outside of David Wright, the Mets have not had a true right-handed power hitter in nearly a decade. Moreover, carrying a great rotation of their own, to close as a dog in the eyes of the public means the Mets are really in a funk, or facing an elite starter. Citi Field is certainly difficult to manufacture runs under such opposition and providing the Mets few favors. New York have also been just good enough over the last few years to keep the betting public off-guard, and perhaps overvalued on the MLB odds when playing at home. Over the last two seasons, they finished April with a winning percentage over 60%, moving on to lose on average 54% of their games post-June. It is anybody's guess as to where this team finishes the 2015 season. If recent history is any guide, however, I will be looking out for home dog contests fading this poor hitting club with my MLB picks.

As always, use this information to support your leans and best of luck.

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