MLB Betting: 2016 Home Field Buy And Sell Ratings Based On OPS Numbers

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 3:26 PM GMT

Based on the batting and pitching OPS numbers of each team at HOME, recommendations the chart below that provides you will BUY and SELL ratings for teams on their HOME field. 

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 1
MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 2
MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 3
MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 4

 

Through Sunday June 26th, MLB teams have averaged approximately 75 games this season, almost 50% of their schedule. For much of this season, including through May, home teams were winning less than 50% of the games. Their fortunes have changed in June, with the record now standing 595-538 for 52.5%. That is a result of the success of American League home teams, which are now 312-256 (54.9%). Home teams are still languishing at 283-282 (50%) in the National League. 

In the last two weeks, I examined home/road dichotomies for the best and worst pitchers in each league. Last Thursday, I authored an article suggesting BUY and SELL ratings for all teams of MLB based on batting and pitching OPS numbers after 70 games. Today’s article is a combination of those two lines of thinking. 

Much like last week’s BUY and SELL article, I will list each of the teams by their strength of HOME FIELD. I will then place a separate column of ranking for each their OPS batting numbers, and their inverted OPS home pitching numbers. We invert these numbers, because unlike batting numbers where higher is better, in pitching numbers, the lower number is better. Finally, I combine these two groups of batting and pitching numbers, then rank them from best to worst. When that combined rating is 7 positions or more better or worse than the home ranking W/L number, you have a BUY or SELL rating on the team. 

Quite simply, this means that the BUY teams figure to improve their record for the year to date at home, while the home record of the SELL teams is projected to decline in the near future. At the conclusion of the chart, I will point out specifically which of the teams have flashed their BUY and SELL ratings. 

 

W/L Hm

Rank

Team

W/L Hm

Record

W/L Hm

%

Hm Bat

Rank

Hm Bat

OPS

Invert Hm

Pitch Rank

Invert Hm

Pitch OPS

Comb Hm

Rank

Comb Hm

OPS

1

KC

26-10

.722

5

.793

11

.294

7

1.087

2

Balt

31-13

.705

4

.818

23

.241

10

1.059

3

Texas

28-12

.700

6

.790

26

.220

4

1.110

4

Cubs

25-11

.694

10

.760

1

.400

1

1.160

5

Cleve

23-12

.657

3

.830

9

.306

2

1.136

6

SF

24-14

.632

20

.728

10

.301

14

1.029

7

Wash

20-12

.625

19

.729

3

.368

5

1.097

8

LAD

23-15

.605

24

.686

2

.372

9

1.068

9

Hou

22-15

.595

15

.749

5

.330

8

1.079

10

NYY

21-16

.568

16

.741

17

.260

21

1.001

11

Det

21-16

.568

8

.789

22

.243

13

1.032

12

Bos

23-18

.561

2

.839

14

.278

3

1.116

13

Pit

22-18

.550

9

.776

20

.253

16

1.090

14

NYM

19-16

.543

27

.675

4

.348

17

1.023

15

Milw

21-18

.539

12

.760

25

.226

22

0.986

16

Tor

19-17

.528

7

.790

18

.256

11

1.046

17

Mia

21-19

.525

23

.706

8

.313

18

1.019

18

CWS

19-18

.514

18

.730

15

.272

20

1.002

19

Col

17-18

.486

1

.911

30

.118

15

1.029

20

Sea

17-19

.472

14

.757

13

.281

12

1.038

21

SD

18-22

.450

26

.677

21

.248

26

0.925

22

Cin

18-22

.450

21

.718

27

.194

28

0.907

23

TB

15-20

.429

25

.679

7

.325

19

1.004

24

Oak

16-22

.421

28

.666

16

.269

25

0.935

25

Phil

16-22

.421

30

.608

24

.229

30

0.837

26

St L

15-21

.417

11

.760

6

.326

6

1.096

27

LAA

16-23

.410

22

.712

19

.254

23

0.966

28

Min

15-25

.375

17

.732

29

.172

29

0.904

29

Ari

13-25

.342

13

.757

28

.183

24

0.940

30

Atl

11-29

.275

29

.634

12

.282

27

0.916

 

BUY teams:

St Louis (+20)
Last week, I issued an overall BUY sign on St Louis, asking the question, for how long is the 15-21 home record of a team who has won 50 or more home games forever going to last? With the #11 home OPS batting number of .760 and #6 OPS home pitching rating of .326, the Cardinals have the overall home rating of #6 at 1.096. Yet they have only the 26th best home record at 15-21. A major adjustment is about to occur.

 

Boston (+9)
The Red Sox have a solid home record of 23-18, but they are in a bit of a funk on a 12-17 slide after a 29-17 start. With the #2 ranked home batting OPS at .839 and the #14 ranked pitching OPS at home of .278, their 1.117 combined rating is the third best home ranking in MLB odds. Yet their 12th ranked home record implies there is plenty of room for improvement, which can be expected to soon come.

 

Seattle (+8)
Much like the Seattle once best in MLB road record has begun to even out, so should we expect that their 17-19 home record will begin to surge. That’s good for only 20th in MLB, while their combined numbers of 14 in batting and 13 in pitching have them at a #12 rank of 1.038, 8 positions above their current record. Mariner numbers are good enough that they should be a winning team. Expect much of that success for MLB pick to come at home.

 

SELL teams:

NYY (11)
The combined #6 home team batting OPS number and #17 home OPS pitching number are good for a combined rating of #21 in the league at 1.001. Yet the 21-16 home record is 10th in MLB. That is a difference of 11 positions, with their batting simply not good enough, regardless of how well their DMC bullpen pitching is. 

 

Baltimore (8)
The #2 home record in MLB at 31-13 is a function of the #4 ranked home OPS batting number, which is .818. But it’s doubtful the pitching can uphold that record, as they are ranked 23rd in MLB at home. A combined #10 ranking is 8 positions lower than their current rank, implying a return to Earth for the home record.

 

San Francisco (8)
Nobody has been hotter than the Giants in the last ¼ of the season, as they have a 32-10 record and are on a 13-2 run. But as we know, 90% of teams will finish between .400-.600 when the season ends. That means the Giants are due for a dip from their current .636 winning percentage. It would well happen at home, where their 20th ranked home batting pulls down their 10th ranked home pitching to the #14 combined position, which is 8 ranks lower than their current home ranking. Clearly an adjustment is in store for San Francisco.

 

Milwaukee (7)
The Brew Crew has a winning home record of 21-18, based largely on the #12 ranked home batting OPS of .760. Not sure that will look the same in the near future, as the 25th ranked pitching gives them a more realistic #22 ranked home field, 7 positions worse than their current mark. No surprise if Milwaukee dips under .500 at home in the near future. 

 

These are my late June BUY and SELL rankings for home fields after approximately 75 games. The history of these ratings is very strong, leading to the conclusion that following them should provide you with profit.