MLB Betting: 2016 Away Team Buy & Sell Ratings Based On OPS Numbers

Friday, July 1, 2016 1:40 PM GMT

Away teams are having great success once again in MLB. In fact, through the month of May, road teams were winning more than 50% of the games. Worth noting for MLB Betting.

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 1
MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 2
MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 3
MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 4

In the previous 2 weeks, I authored four Articles, in which I noted home/road dichotomies for the best and worst pitchers in each league. One week ago, I sent out my Buy and Sell Ratings for all teams in MLB. On Monday, I became more specific with an article that isolated which teams, when playing at home, were likely to see their fortunes improve (a Buy sign) or decline (a Sell indicator). In today’s article, I do the same with projections of Buy and Sell ratings for road teams in MLB. This is based on the records through June 28th, 2016. In the chart below, I use batting and pitching OPS numbers of each team on the road then make recommendations from the information in the chart that provides you with Buy and Sell Ratings for teams on the road.

Just as in my Monday article, in which I analyzed the strength of home fields, the following chart will list each MLB team with their road record, running from best to worst. Following that information comes separate columns which rank each of the teams based on their OPS road batting numbers and rank, along with their inverted OPS road pitching numbers and rank. Remember, that we invert these pitching numbers, because unlike batting numbers where higher is better, a lower number is better in OPS pitching numbers. At the end of the chart, I combine these two groups of batting and pitching road OPS numbers and rank them from best to worst. When the combined road rating is 6 positions or more (better or worse) than the W/L home ranking, you have a Buy or Sell rating on the team.

Simply stated, the Buy teams figure to improve their record for the year to date on the road, while the road record of the Sell teams is projected to decline in the near future. Long time readers of these articles have seen the power of these Buy and Sell ratings at work. There is every reason to believe that these projected Buy and Sell ratings will be just as successful.

 

W/L

Aw

Rank

Team

W/L Aw

Record

W/L Aw

%

Away Bat

Rank

Aw Bat

OPS

Invert Aw

Pitch Rank

Invert Aw

Pitch OPS

Comb Aw

Rank

Comb Aw

OPS

1

SF

25/14

.641

14

.739

6

.312

5

1.051

2

Cubs

25/15

.625

4

.792

1

.392

1

1.184

3

SL

25/15

.625

2

.807

9

.292

2

1.099

4

TX

28/12

.605

18

.719

5

.314

9

1.033

5

AZ

23/17

.575

5

.776

12

.275

6

1.051

6

Cleve

23/18

.561

23

.698

3

.333

10

1.031

7

Wash

24/20

.545

9

.758

4

.314

3

1.072

8

Mia

20/17

.541

8

.768

17

.251

14

1.019

9

Tor

23/20

.535

12

.744

8

.297

8

1.041

10

Bos

19/17

.528

1

.811

13

.261

4

1.072

11

Sea

21/19

.525

7

.772

16

.256

11

1.028

12

NYM

21/20

.512

15

.732

10

.292

13

1.024

13

LAD

20/21

.488

21

.701

2

.341

7

1.042

14

CWS

19/20

.487

24

.697

14

.260

18

.957

15

Col

19/21

.475

20

.715

7

.298

15

1.013

16

Balt

15/17

.469

3

.794

20

.233

12

1.027

17

Hou

19/22

.463

13

.741

24

.202

21

.943

18

Oak

18/21

.462

10

.748

26

.182

23

.930

19

Phil

18/23

.439

19

.718

19

.245

17

.963

20

Det

17/22

.436

11

.746

22

.217

16

.963

21

NYY

16/21

.432

29

.656

15

.258

25

.914

22

LAA

16/21

.432

16

.729

25

.202

22

.931

23

Atl

15/20

.429

30

.643

11

.277

24

.920

24

TB

16/23

.410

6

.775

27

.181

19

.956

25

Pitt

15/22

.405

17

.729

29

.164

27

.893

26

SD

15/22

.405

22

.701

18

.248

20

.949

27

Milw

13/23

.361

26

.690

28

.175

29

.865

28

KC

13/25

.342

25

.691

21

.222

26

.913

29

Cinci

11/25

.306

27

.687

30

.147

30

.834

30

Minn

10/26

.278

28

.684

23

.202

28

.886

 

Buy Teams:  Boston Red Sox, LA Dodgers, San Diego Padres

Boston Red Sox:
Based on the Red Sox No. 1 rated road batting OPS of .811, they should have no worse than the league’s 4th best road record. Yet, they are underachieving at 19-17. This goes hand in glove with their recent overall slide, which sees them on a 13-19 dip through Wednesday, June 29th action. No surprise if the big bats of Boston turn this around with a record that will most certainly improve on the road, thus improving their MLB odds.

LA Dodgers:
At the opposite end of the spectrum of the Boston Red Sox is the good pitching of the LA Dodgers which has them ranked No. 2 in MLB in that department on the road. That figures to guide them to no worse than the 7th best road record in MLB. Yet, they continue to languish in that department at 20-21. Based on pitching alone, the Dodgers can be projected to have a winning road record.

San Diego Padres:
San Diego just is not as bad as their road record indicates. Or maybe it is because we are used to seeing them in the bottom of the standings year in and year out. In any case, their No. 20 ranked road rating implies an improvement over the 26th best road record.  

 

Sell Teams:  Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins:
If you compare the results of the home records in Monday’s Article, you will note much larger gaps between the actual home records and the projected home records. Take for instance the St. Louis Cardinals who, in that report, had the 26th worst home record in MLB. But according to the ratings, should be No. 6. That is a huge gap of 20 places. As we examine the road records, we find they are much tighter with only 4 teams being 6 positions away from their projected record. These Marlins, in fact, are the only team whose road record of 20-17, 8th best in the league, can be expected to dip based on the projected No. 14 ranking. SO take that into account in the upcoming MLB Picks.

Remember, the conclusions of this article are based on a “snapshot” at this point in time. Once the adjustments have been made, the Buy and Sell rankings will disappear as the teams return to their anticipated position in the standings. Thus, should you want to use this type of thinking in your handicapping, it is suggested that you spend the 2-3 hours a week doing your own home, road, overall Buy and Sell rankings for the MLB teams.