Red Sox vs. Indians MLB Picks: Strong Pitching Behind Porcello Gives Value To Road Fave In Game 1

Ian Cameron

Thursday, October 6, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Porcello & Co. will be in a tough spot in game 1, as the Tribe owns a slight edge in the bullpen. With Boston's odds not being as tempting as we expected, is there any betting value with the road favorite?



Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

The Boston Red Sox should enjoy a pitching edge in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians. Rick Porcello has enjoyed a terrific season for the Sox with a strong 3.15 ERA including a 3.31 allowance on the road. Boston has a 25-8 record in Porcello’s starts this season and he pitched well in his lone outing earlier this season against Cleveland allowing just 2 runs in 5.2 innings of work. He has yielded 3 runs or less in each of his last 10 starts along with 3 runs or less in seven straight starts against Cleveland since 2013 and I expect him to neutralize the Indians lineup here on Thursday. 

On the flip side, Trevor Bauer will be getting the starting nod for Cleveland I think he will be in a tough spot making his first ever playoff start and doing so against a very well balanced Boston lineup which can score runs in a variety of ways. Bauer allowed 24 runs in his last 29.2 innings of work down the stretch and has struggled in two starts against the Red Sox in his career giving up 9 runs on 14 hits in 6.2 innings against them and Cleveland lost both of those games. 

Cleveland does have a slight edge in the bullpen with the Cody Allen and Andrew Miller combination at the back end but I’m not convinced that Boston won’t be leading this game by a margin by the time the bullpens become a factor in this game. I don’t love this price across the board with Boston being at -140 on the road in a playoff game but the pitching edge is significant enough that I can only recommend the Red Sox as my MLB pick even at this moderate price on the road to get the victory in Game 1.

Remember to check out SBR’s Sportsbook Rating Guide so that you know where the best places to bet are, but not only that because if you are wagering on MLB postseason, SBR has some tips for the seasoned sports gamblers.


Free MLB Pick: Boston -130
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


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