ML & Total MLB Picks: 2 Ways to Win on Athletics vs. Angels

Darin Zank

Monday, August 31, 2015 4:25 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 31, 2015 4:25 PM GMT

The Angels are in danger of another disappointing finish to a season as they begin a three-game series with the A's in Oakland Monday night. Where might the value on this line reside?

Angels-A's Monday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on Anaheim and Hector Santiago was the -104 offered at GT Bets, while Oakland with fellow lefty Felix Doubront was getting +100 at Bovada. The Angels could also be played getting +155 while giving the run and a half on the run line at JustBet.

 

The Situation
Anaheim just got swept three games at Cleveland over the weekend, scoring a total of six runs, losing Sunday 9-2. So the Angels are 2-4 over their last six series, and 6-14 over their last 20 games.

At 65-65 Anaheim has fallen 6.5 games behind division-leading Houston in the AL West, and 3.5 games behind Texas in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot, with one month to go.

Oakland, meanwhile, just took two of three games at Arizona over the weekend, winning Sunday's rubber match 7-4 in 11 innings. Even so, the A's are also only 2-4 in their last six series, 6-12 over their last 18 games.

At 57-74 Oakland owns the worst record in the American League.

The Angels lead this season series seven games to six, with the OVERS going 9-4.

 

Monday's Mound Match-Up
Doubront (1-1, 3.70) is three-for-six on quality starts this season, one-for-two since joining the Oakland rotation two weeks ago. Last Monday Doubront tossed two scoreless innings against Seattle before leaving the game after getting hit on the foot with a line drive. Just before that he threw six innings of one-hit ball against the Dodgers, allowing just one unearned run, although he also walked six batters. On the season, including four starts for Toronto and three relief appearances, Doubront has allowed 47 hits through 41 1/3 innings, walked 12 and struck out 30.

Oakland is 2-0 in Doubront's starts, with the OVERS going 2-0.

In two career starts against Anaheim, both coming back in 2013 while with Boston, Doubront gave up five runs through 12 2/3 innings; the Sox split those two games.

Santiago (7-8, 3.13), an All-Star this season, is 11-for-25 on quality starts, but 0 for his last two. Last Wednesday he gave up five runs in less than five innings against Detroit, coughing up three gopher balls, and just before that he gave up four runs – two earned – through less than four innings against Toronto, walking four. In fact, over his last three starts, covering 15 innings, Santiago has issued 10 bases on balls. For the season Santiago has allowed 129 hits, including 22 ding dongs, through 150 innings, walked 51 and struck out 138.

The Angels are 12-13 in Santiago's starts, with the UNDERS going 13-12.

In seven career starts against Oakland, from a quality start with the White Sox back in 2013 to a good effort back on June 12 of this season, Santiago has held the A's to just six ER through 41 1/3 innings, for an ERA of 1.31; his teams won five of those seven games.

 

Monday's Batting Splits
Anaheim ranks just 29th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .232 team batting average, 27th with a .299 team on-base percentage and 25th with a .365 team slugging percentage.

Oakland ranks 18th against lefties with a .251 team BA, 15th with a .316 team OBP and 23rd with a .371 team slugging percentage.

We'll give the A's a slight edge with the sticks for tonight.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at the Coliseum this season are 33-30 on the OVERS, even though they're only averaging 7.6 runs per. Apparently MLB oddsmakers have been posting some low totals on A's home games.

 

Angels-A's Monday Free Picks
Oakland owns an edge with the sticks, but Anaheim gets the check mark in the pitching match-up and in the bullpen comparison. So we'll take the Angels tonight confidently with our MLB pick. Also, with a little help from these two bullpens, both of which rank in the bottom half in baseball, this game has a good chance to go OVER.

 

MLB Pick: Anaheim and OVER 7.5 runs (-115) at 5Dimes

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