Minnesota Twins vs L.A. Angels - MLB Picks, June 3rd

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, June 3, 2017 6:04 PM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 3, 2017 6:04 PM UTC

Sometimes lines make you go hmmm.... This is the case on Saturday night as every indication is that the Twins should be favored in this matchup with the Angels.

2017 MLB Record, 90-75-6, +6.97 Units, 3.57% ROI

The Minnesota Twins try to keep their lead in the American League Central, and to be the only team leading a division with a negative run differential, as they continue a series on the road at Anaheim on Saturday night. The line is favoring the home team Angels just slightly at -111 on the moneyline as of Friday night. The Over/Under total indicates the quality pitching that we will have on hand, currently found at 7.5 with the line shading the Under at -120 at Bovada.

I’m interested in this game because of the splits that starting pitcher, Ervin Santana, is bringing on the side of Minnesota. Even though his walk rate is up from last year, Santana is allowing just a .141 batting average allowed against lefties and .136 against righties. His record on the road is frankly ridiculous. Away from Minnesota, Santana is carrying a 0.31 ERA, .106 BAA, 0.72 WHIP, and .141 SLG. In 11 starts on the year Santana has allowed more than one earned run in just 2 of those.

Santana faces Matt Shoemaker of the Angels, who has been average on the year and is carrying a 4.96 FIP. He’s seen his walk rate double over last year to 3.38 BB/9 – he has 23 walks through 61.1 IP this year versus just 30 walks in 160.0 IP all of last year. Shoemaker has the same issue compared to Santana, in that he will be carrying worse statistics in this stadium than on the road. He has put up a 5.20 ERA at home versus a 3.48 ERA on the road. He also allows a .275 batting average allowed against left handers. The Twins should be able to stack their lineup to take advantage of this fact, something the Angels won’t be able to do – especially without Mike Trout in the lineup.

The Angels also have some larger season long trends working against them in this game. They only bat .227 as a team against right-handed starters. Who knows what that figure truly is without Trout’s input in it. They will face a Minnesota team averaging almost a run more per game against right-handed starters and batting .256 as well. The Twins bullpen has been much better on the road than at home and have a 3.38 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in that situation. The Angels bullpen has put up a 3.87 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home, but they have to get to the bullpen with a lead for that to matter much.

With excellent value being presented here to take the Twins and their ace, Ervin Santana, at the underdog line of +106 I can’t really make an argument not too. That’s what I’ll be doing on Saturday night as I’ll grab the Twins now at +106 at 5Dimes as one of my Saturday MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Twins +106Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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