Mining the Diamond: Tuesday's Value MLB Picks Feature DBacks & Rockies

Paul Goldschmidt

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, May 16, 2017 4:18 PM GMT

Tuesday, May. 16, 2017 4:18 PM GMT

Tuesday night features a full slate of action and Mining the Diamond is back to deliver its two top MLB picks. Let’s review the MLB odds and get down to cashing those tickets

Mets (16-21, -10.2 units) vs. Diamondbacks (22-18, +4.9 units)
  • Arizona is 96-69 (+21.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.

  • Arizona is 16-8 (+7.7 units) when playing at home this season.

  • Arizona’s starter Zack Greinke’s teams’ record is 121-67 (+39.2 Units) in home games over his career starts.

  • Arizona’s starter Zack Greinke’s teams’ record is 63-25 (+31.7 Units) in home games after a win

  • New York is 13-17 (-8.7 units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • New York is 7-13 (-8.7 units) after a loss this season.

  • New York is 3-9 (-6.0 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

  • New York is 0-3 (-3.1 units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

The MLB odds makers opened the Diamondbacks as -165 home chalk but the number is climbing already. Some shops are dealing Arizona as high as -190 but if you’re going to bet baseball you better have plenty of places to compare lines and we spy a value line still lingering at Pinnacle as of this mid-morning writing. The long and short of it is that the Mets are in a downward spiral, dropping their last five contests including Monday night’s 7-3 setback to these same Diamondbacks. Moreover, Zack Greinke is on the hill for Arizona and he owns a 5-2 mark when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 0.955.

New York’s starter Tom Milone has only one start against the Diamondbacks and it ended in a 9-8 loss with the veteran getting tagged for four runs on nine hits giving him a 7.20 ERA and a WHIP of 2.20 after pitching five full innings. This season Milone has been decent enough with a 1-0 record and a 4.74 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP but he’s no match for Greinke and a Snakes’ offense that is currently tied for fourth in the majors. Include the Diamondbacks in your MLB picks before the number climbs even higher.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -166Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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 Rockies (24-15, +11.5 units) vs. Twins (19-15, +4.9 units)
  • Minnesota is 38-61 (-24.4 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.

  • Minnesota is 41-76 (-27.6 Units) after a loss over the last two seasons.

  • Minnesota is 2-6 (-5.0 units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • Colorado is 11-5 (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.

  • Colorado is 11-7 (+6.4 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

  • Colorado is 8-4 (+4.5 units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125.

The Rockies are coming off a 9-6 win over the Dodgers on Sunday while the Twins saw their four-game winning streak snapped with an 8-3 loss to the Indians. There isn’t any recent history between the clubs but I like the pitching matchup here which favors Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (3-2, 2.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) over Minnesota’s Phil Hughes (4-1, 4.74 ERA, 1.42) and the fact that the Rockies bullpen has been excellent on the road as evidenced by its 2.03 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Twins’ pen has not been nearly as successful at home as it sports a 5.14 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Go with the road dog here.

Free MLB Pick: Rockies +107Best Line Offered: at BetPhoenix

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