Mining the Diamond: Tribe and Phillies Road Warriors in Thursday’s MLB Picks

mining dimaond twins

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, August 17, 2017 2:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 17, 2017 2:14 PM GMT

On Wednesday, we connected with the Rangers on the money line and Rockies on the run line, both cruising to blowout victories. Now we turn our attention to Thursday’s slate and the accompanying MLB odds to do it all over again.

Game 1: Indians (65-52, -17.6 Units) at Twins (59-58, +4.7 Units)
  • Minnesota is 36-55 (-20.7 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 7-18 (-13.0 Units) in home games when playing with a day off over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 9-18 (-10.6 Units) in home day games this season.
  • Cleveland is 21-6 (+13.8 Units) when playing on Thursday over the last two seasons.
  • Cleveland is 10-5 (+3.4 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Cleveland is 15-10 (+3.8 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Wednesday's contest was postponed, but the Indians cruised to an easy 8-1 decision in the opener of this three-game set in Minnesota on Tuesday night. Today is a double-dipper with Cleveland’s Carlos Carasco, coming off an absolute gem against Tampa Bay in which he blanked the Rays and held them to two hits through eight innings in a 5-0 win, starting Game 1 of the twin bill.

The Indians are an astounding 8-0 in games played in the Twin Cities this season and should make this nine straight when game-1 is done. The Tribe has now won five consecutive games and averaged 5.7 runs per contest in the process. Let’s back Cleveland on the run line in our MLB picks due to the fact that each Indians’ win in Minnesota was by a minimum of three runs or more.

Free MLB Pick: Indians -1½ (+100)Best Line Offered: Heritage

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 Phillies (43-75, -22.8 Units) at Giants (48-74, 29.1 Units)
  • San Francisco is 17-35 (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • San Francisco is 32-51 (-23.6 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • San Francisco is 29-36 (-24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
  • San Francisco’s starter Jeff Samardzija’s team record is 0-4 (-4.7 Units) when starting against the Phillies with an ERA of 10.18 and a WHIP of 1.87.
  • San Francisco’s starter Jeff Samardzija’s team record is 13-31 (-20.0 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over his career.
  • San Francisco’s starter Jeff Samardzija’s team record is 39-51 (-24.8 Units) in home games over his career.
  • San Francisco’s starter Jeff Samardzija’s team record is 11-22 (-12.8 Units) in August games over his career.

I’m not going to attempt to build a case for the Philadelphia Phillies because they are a lousy team and to endorse them would be absurd. However, they are facing an almost equally inferior club tonight and have a guy going in Aaron Nola who has pitched some fine baseball over his last three starts with a 1-1 record, 2.25 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

The fade comes hard and fast against the Giants’ starter Jeff Samardzija. The veteran righty has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and is backed by an anemic Giants offense. Neither team is inclined to light up the scoreboard, but we like the steep pitching advantage that Philadelphia owns here. Our power rating says the MLB odds are reflecting the wrong favorite and that’s what we call value.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies +107Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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