Mining the Diamond: There’s Value in the Home Chalk in Friday’s MLB Picks

Friday, September 8, 2017 3:15 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 8, 2017 3:15 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond saw the Marlins snatch defeat from the jaws of victory when they were edged in the final frame by the Atlanta Braves. However, we did cash the other one of our two MLB picks when the Twins rallied to beat the Royals 4-2. Let’s see what Friday’s card has to offer.

Brewers (72-68, +12.4 Units) at Cubs (77-63, -18.1 Units)
  • Chicago is 46-31 (+2.3 Units) in night games this season.
  • Chicago is 32-18 (+0.4 Units) versus the Brewers over the last three seasons.
  • Chicago’s starter John Lackey’s team record is 35-17 (+17.0 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over his career.
  • Milwaukee is 4-8 (-5.6 Units) after three or more consecutive losses this season.
  • Milwaukee is 14-17 (-2.7 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
  • Milwaukee’s starter Jimmy Nelson is 1-6 when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.31.

The MLB odds makers have given us enough value to include the Cubbies as one of our MLB picks to start the weekend. John Lackey spun a gem in his last outing when he blanked the Braves over seven innings en route to a 2-0 victory. The veteran hurler is 6-3 when starting against the Brewers with an ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.17 versus Milwaukee’s starter Jimmy Nelson who is 1-6 against Chicago with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

In addition, the Cubs have now won eight of their last 11 games while the Brewers have dropped four of their last five. Let’s back the better team, the home team, and fade the visitors who have a pitcher starting that has had little success against them. Back the Cubs tonight!

Free MLB Picks: Cubs -118Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Rays (70-71, -3.2 Units) at Red Sox (79-61, +2.0 Units)
  • Boston is 39-21 (+18.4 Units) in September games over the last three seasons.
  • Boston is 63-44 (+8.9 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Boston is 28-19 (+5.1 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 18-30 (-13.4 Units) when playing on Friday over the last two seasons.
  • Tampa Bay is 73-90 (-20.7 Units) after a loss over the last two seasons.
  • Tampa Bay is 87-108 (-25.8 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.

To say that the Rays’ Chris Archer hasn’t fared well against Boston is a bit of an understatement. The 28-year-old right-hander is 2-11 when starting against the Red Sox with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.63. He is returning after tossing just eight pitches in his last start when he experienced tightness in his forearm. Archer is coming back earlier than anticipated after Austin Pratt, tonight’s scheduled starter, was needed in relief on Wednesday which has caused Archer to be slotted a day or two earlier than expected. Let’s back the AL East leaders at a price we can afford.

Free MLB Picks: Red Sox -127Best Line Offered: at YouWager
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