Mining the Diamond: The Price is Right on the Favorites in Wednesday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, June 28, 2017 3:21 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 28, 2017 3:21 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond has reviewed the MLB odds, pitching matchups and historical trends to give SBR readers two premium plays in Wednesday’s baseball betting action.

Royals (37-38, +4.2 units) at Tigers (34-42, -9.8 units)
  • Detroit is 17-11 (+5.3 units) against division opponents this season.

  • Detroit is 10-6 (+1.8 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

  • Detroit is 3-1 (+1.8 Units) against the Royals this season

  • Kansas City is 9-19 (-9.2 units) against division opponents this season.

  • Kansas City is 11-15 (-2.8 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

  • Kansas City is 8-13 (-5.6 units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

The Tigers suffered through a string of losses before copping wins in their last two, including last night’s 5-3 win over the Royals in the opener of this three-game set. Conversely, the Royals have dropped their last two and are 1-3 versus Detroit this season. Although the Tigers have a middling offense (14th) this season, having plated 362 runs on the season, the Royals have amongst the most anemic lineups in the majors with just 295 runs (28th) scored in 2017.

Compounding this fact is that Kansas City averages only 3.8 runs per game against southpaws, like the one they will be facing tonight in Daniel Norris. Detroit averages 5.4 runs at home and will be feasting on KC’s starter Ian Kennedy whose team record is 1-6 (-5.5 units) when facing the Tigers throughout his career. The MLB odds should be higher on the home team which is why we will take the plunge and back the Motor City Cats in this one.

MLB Pick: Tigers -132Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Yankees (41-34, -2.5 units) at White Sox (33-43, +0.5 units)
  • Chicago is 18-30 (-5.5 units) in night games this season.

  • Chicago is 20-34 (-5.2 units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • Chicago is 12-21 (-4.0 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

  • New York is 8-3 (+4.3 units) when playing on Wednesday this season.

  • New York is 11-6 (+3.6 units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • New York’s starter Masahiro Tanaka’s team’s record is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.

New York’s Masahiro Tanaka spun a gem in his last outing, limiting the Texas Rangers to just three hits and no runs, in the team’s 2-1 victory on Friday night. Tanaka’s team record is a perfect 4-0 (+4.0 units) against the White Sox in his career and he will be opposed by Carlos Rodon who will be making his season debut tonight. Rodon has been sidelined this year with left biceps bursitis and his rehab assignments make me wonder why he has been elevated to the Bigs. Rodon delivered a bloated 10.06 ERA in one start in Class A Winston-Salem and three starts with their Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte.

Call me cynical but I don’t think the best time to make his MLB debut is against the No. 3 ranked offense of the New York Yankees. This is the pitching mismatch we dream of and the relatively cheap price on the Bombers makes New York a tempting addition to our MLB picks tonight.

MLB Pick: Yankees -134Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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