Mining the Diamond: The 4th of July Means Financial Independence with Redbirds & Astros

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, July 4, 2017 2:34 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 4, 2017 2:34 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is celebrating Independence Day with a pair of top rated MLB picks. Below we analyze the best plays on Tuesday's card in order to keep cashing those tickets!

Marlins (36-45, -8.0 units) at Cardinals (40-42, -8.7 units)

* St. Louis is 4-0 (+4.1 Units) against the Marlins this season.

* St. Louis is 22-15 (+3.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record

* St. Louis is 7-4 (+1.6 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Miami is 86-106 (-27.5 Units) against right-handed starters over the last two seasons.

* Miami is 29-36 (-7.3 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Miami is 15-24 (-6.6 Units) in road games this season.

There are two ways to look at this matinee between the Marlins and the Cardinals and they both concern St. Louis starting pitcher Lance Lynn. If you believe that Lynn's recent spate of games, in which he has been tagged for a combined 17 runs over his last three starts resulting in a 9.36 ERA, is the pitcher he has become then I would suggest this game is a pass.

However, if you are like us, we know the pitcher Lance Lynn has been throughout his career and that two of three bad outings does not define a player. Lynn allowed consecutive seven run games but rebounded in his last appearance when he surrendered three runs on four hits in six full innings which resulted in a 10-4 win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Lynn's team record is 5-0 versus the Marlins and his club has won seven of their last nine contests including a 14-6 thrashing of the Marlins last night in the series opener. Let's watch Lynn do what he has done in his five previous starts against Miami and notch another victory. Back the Cardinals in your MLB picks this afternoon.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -125Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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 Astros (56-27, +19.4 Units) at Braves (40-41, +5.5 Units)

* Atlanta is 4-7 (-3.2 Units) after three or more consecutive wins this season.

* Atlanta is 1-5 (-3.4 Units) as a home underdog of +125 to +175 this season.

* Houston is 29-9 (+19.0 Units) in road games this season.

* Houston is 15-4 (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

* Houston is 10-2 (+7.6 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Houston is 11-2 (+8.0 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

We are delighted the Braves have won their last three because had they lost three straight then the MLB odds on the visitors today would be quite a bit higher. However, we like the price on the Astros today and their starter Brad Peacock has been nails on the mound over his last three with a 2-0 record and a 1.76 ERA. This Houston team is simply too tough for what is now an overachieving Atlanta squad and they will prove it today. Back the road chalk here.

 Free MLB Pick: Astros -155Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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