Mining the Diamond: Royals Reign at Home While Bombers Poised to Romp in Saturday's MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, July 22, 2017 3:33 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 22, 2017 3:33 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column focusing on pitching matchups, historical trends as well as the value rendered by the MLB odds. Let's peruse Saturday's slate and pick out a pair of winners.

White Sox (38-55, -5.6 Units ) at Royals (48-47, +6.5 Units)

* Kansas City is 36-31 (+9.0 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Kansas City is 26-22 (+7.2 Units) after a win this season.

* Kansas City is 28-23 (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.

* Chicago is 3-11 (-7.6 Units) in July games this season.

* Chicago is 23-37 (-7.6 Units) in night games this season.

* Chicago is 20-33 (-7.0 Units) after a loss this season.

Kansas City's Jason Vargas reeled off seven consecutive wins before he was tagged for six runs over five innings against the Seattle Mariners on July 5th. The Royals eventually won that game 9-6 but it was an uncharacteristic outing for a pitcher who had been baffling lineups all season long. He then returned after the break to suffer an even greater beating at the hands of the Tigers who chased him after two plus innings and also plated six runs in this, his last appearance. That ending was not nearly as friendly as Detroit drew away to a 10-2 victory.

However, Jason Vargas resembles much more the pitcher he was before these last two ugly outings and is 13-3 (+10.8 Units) at home over the last two seasons. Vargas brings a 7-2 record with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP at home this year and just consider that those impressive stats were ballooned by the 2 and 2/3's innings of six-run ball in his last appearance at Kauffman Stadium. Enough about Vargas, let's also consider that the Royals have won their last three, including last night's 7-6 win over the White Sox in the series opener, while Chicago has dropped seven straight. Lastly, we should also note that the White Sox' starter Mike Pelfrey is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.20 and a WHIP of 1.86 over his last six appearances against the Royals.

The power rating has KC at -186 therefore we still see value despite the rather heavy lumber the MLB odds makers are asking us to lay. Add the Royals to your MLB picks tonight.

MLB Picks: Royals -170Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Yankees (50-45, -6.3 Units) at Mariners (48-50, -4.0 Units)

* Seattle is 69-84 (-23.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons.

* Seattle is 4-11 (-8.2 Units) when playing on Saturday this season.

* Seattle is 22-27 (-7.2 Units) after a loss this season.

* New York's starter Masahiro Tanaka's team record is 17-2 (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.

* New York is 7-1 (+6.4 Units) against the Mariners in all games played at Seattle over the last three seasons.

* New York is 9-5 (+4.5 Units) when playing on Saturday this season.

This selection is about two primary factors. The first being Yankees' starter Masahiro Tanaka and his 5-0 career mark against Seattle, reflecting a sterling 1.95 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in those starts. Secondly, we must consider that the Yankees have owned the Mariners in games played at Safeco Field over the last three seasons, winning seven of eight (+6.4 Units), including New York's 4-1 and 5-1 victories in the first two games of this four-game set. Back Tanaka and the Bombers tonight in Seattle.

MLB Picks: Yankees -136Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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