Mining the Diamond: Rocks Ready to Roll & Astros Prepared for Liftoff in Monday’s MLB Picks

mining diamond

Swinging Johnson

Monday, July 24, 2017 3:35 PM GMT

Monday, Jul. 24, 2017 3:35 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond begins the new week after splitting on Sunday but determined to cash a pair of winners in Monday’s MLB picks.

Rockies (58-42, +16.7 Units) At Cardinals (47-51, -11.3 Units)
  • St. Louis is 29-35 (-11.6 Units) in night games this season.
  • St. Louis is 26-32 (-21.4 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.
  • St. Louis is 25-35 (-18.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.
  • Colorado is 13-6 (+9.4 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Colorado is 27-23 (+7.4 Units) in road games this season.
  • Colorado is 33-24 (+9.6 Units) after a win this season.

The Rockies are on a roll entering this three-game series in St. Louis after winning six of their last seven games. Conversely, the Cardinals are reeling after dropping four of five and now taking on a team against which they lost two of three earlier this season. The wild card in this matchup is which starting pitcher will break free from his funk and put forth at least a serviceable outing.

My money is on Colorado’s reliever-turned-starter Antonio Senzatela, a 22-year-old Venezuelan, who started his first game last Tuesday since being demoted to the bullpen in mid-June. His performance was mixed, allowing three earned runs over five full in Colorado’s 9-7 triumph over the Padres. He should be good enough to allow the hard-hitting Rockies (ranked 3rd in scoring) to get to St. Louis veteran Mike Leake. Speaking of Leake, here are a few stats to consider:

  • Leake’s team record is 6-17 (-16.8 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.
  • Leake’s team record is 5-14 (-13.9 Units) in night home games over the last two seasons.
  • Leake’s team record is 2-11 (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

The MLB odds makers are giving us a gift by installing Colorado as such sizeable underdogs against a team with a sub-.500 record. Let’s back the Rox in our MLB picks tonight and cash a ticket.

Free MLB Picks: Rockies +138Best Line Offered: Heritage

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 Astros (65-33, +19.7 Units) At Phillies (34-62, -19.8 Units)
  • Philadelphia is 8-26 (-17.5 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Philadelphia is 16-41 (-21.3 Units) in night games this season.
  • Philadelphia is 23-47 (-19.7 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Houston is 35-12 (+21.2 Units) in road games this season.
  • Houston is 28-14 (+11.8 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Houston is 23-8 (+11.7 Units) after a loss this season.

This has all the markings of a square play, but call me Joe. Q. Public because our power rating has Houston as a -235 favorite in this matchup. Here we have the most prolific offensive unit battling the worst, save for San Diego, and although Houston will be without Carlos Correa for the next six weeks, the ‘Stros have been averaging six runs per game over their last five without their potent shortstop in the lineup. In addition, starting pitcher Brad Peacock has surrendered only seven earned runs over his last six starts, sporting a 5-0 record over that time.

Don’t overthink this one, just lay the lumber and watch the Astros cruise.

Free MLB Pick: Astros -139Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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