Mining the Diamond: Road Warriors Big Blue & Cubs Cashing in Thursday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, August 24, 2017 2:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 24, 2017 2:44 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that focuses on pitching matchups, historical trends, and betting value. Let’s review the odds board and cash our two top plays in Thursday's baseball action.

Dodgers (89-36, +33.7 Units) at Pirates (61-66, -4.7 Units)
  • Pittsburgh is 16-17 (-0.2 Units) against left-handed starters this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 10-12 (-3.6 Units) in August games this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 26-30 (-5.6 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Los Angeles is 4-1 (+2.6 Units) after getting shutout this season.
  • Los Angeles is 33-11 (+15.2 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Los Angeles is 60-25 (+22.7 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

It is uncharacteristic of us to back the same team on three consecutive days but we believe the Dodgers are worth it. LA gave us enormous value on Tuesday as a virtual pick’em on Tuesday when they defeated the Pirates 8-5 in the second of this four-game set. We went back to the well yesterday but backed Big Blue on the run line as the MLB odds makers made them a bit too steep on the money line. It was bitter sweet, mostly bitter to be fair, as the Dodgers lost in extra innings 1-0. We saved ourselves all that juice but the bet proved to be poison as LA’s offense slumbered throughout.

This afternoon we see decent value with the Dodgers again but we won’t chance another sleepy offensive performance and back them strictly on the money line in this one. LA’s starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu has tossed blanks in three of his last four starts and has a team record of 5-0 over his last five and the Dodgers have been winners in eight of his last nine appearances. Ryu has a 1.59 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts and has a career mark of 3-0 when starting against the Pirates with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.08. LA is 5-1 on the season against Pittsburgh and should prevail after a lackluster offensive performance last night. Back Big Blue in your MLB picks this afternoon.

Free MLB Picks: Dodgers -146Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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 Cubs (68-57, 15.8 Units) at Reds (53-74, -10.9 Units)
  • Cincinnati is 29-43 (-7.5 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Cincinnati is 10-17 (-4.1 Units) after three or more consecutive losses this season.
  • Cincinnati is 22-36 (-7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • Chicago is 21-8 (+9.7 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
  • Chicago is 19-8 (+4.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
  • Chicago’s starter Jake Arrieta’s team record is 14-2 (+10.9 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.

Everyone knew it was just a matter of time before the defending World Series champs began to get their train rolling. The Cubs have now won five straight and eight of their last 10 games. Jake Arrieta has been a beast over the last two seasons in August, compiling a 14-1 team record (+12.5 Units) and comes into this one with a 3-0 mark and a 1.93 ERA over his last three starts. His counter number for the Reds, Sal Romano, clocks in with a 1-2 record and a 6.00 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over his last three. Romano has also struggled mightily at home with a 1-3 record, a 6.63 ERA, and a 1.74 WHIP at the Great American Ball Park.

This one looks like a slam dunk for the Cubbies and our power rating has them as -219 favorites, thus the -163 we are laying at 5Dimes is a bargain in our eyes. Back the Cubs tonight!

Free MLB Picks: Cubs -163Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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