Mining the Diamond: Road Teams Rule in Thursday’s MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond

Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:41 PM GMT

Yesterday we picked the Padres to upset the Indians as big road dogs and sure enough San Diego prevailed. Let’s get back at it and scour Thursday’s baseball card to deliver a pair of premium MLB picks to add to our bankroll.

Pirates (39-46, -6.1 Units) at Phillies (28-55, -19.5 Units)
  • Philadelphia is 4-21 (-17.0 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • Philadelphia is 14-35 (-17.3 Units) in night games this season.

  • Philadelphia is 15-40 (-19.5 Units) after a loss this season.

  • Pittsburgh is 60-44 (+19.2 Units) in road games after a win over the last three seasons.

  • Pittsburgh is 9-7 (+3.2 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • Pittsburgh is 33-22 (+11.1 Units) in July games this season.

Pittsburgh dropped the series opener but has rebounded with two consecutive wins and is shooting to close this series by taking three of four. Pirates’ starter Chad Kuhl has started two games against Philadelphia with both resulting in Pittsburgh victories. The most recent was five innings of shutout ball where Kuhl allowed just one hit in what became a 1-0 win back on May 21st.  The MLB odds are skewing towards Pittsburgh and with good reason. The Bucs have held the Phillies to just two runs over the last two games and are poised to silence Philadelphia’s anemic bats once again.

Free MLB Pick: Pirates -123Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Orioles (40-44, -4.6 Units) at Twins (43-41, +5.3 Units)
  • Minnesota is 12-21 (-11.8 Units) in home games against right-handed starters this season.

  • Minnesota is 1-9 (-9.3 Units) at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.

  • Minnesota is 18-26 (-10.9 Units) in home games this season.

  • Baltimore is 27-19 (+9.6 Units) in night games this season.

  • Baltimore is 25-22 (+4.4 Units) when playing on Thursday over the last three seasons.

  • Baltimore is 29-34 (+7.2 Units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last three seasons.

The Orioles are included as one of our two MLB picks based solely on value. We have two teams that are essentially even with starters Dylan Bundy of Baltimore and Jose Berrios of Minnesota who are merely serviceable. Therefore, when we look at our power ratings and see that the O’s are actually slightly favored based on this particular algorithm we can’t help but take a stab with this healthy return much like we did yesterday in backing the Padres getting +221 over the Indians. Let’s go for value once again and back the Orioles.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +130Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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