Mining the Diamond: Road Rules as Cubs & Snakes Set to Cash in Monday's MLB Picks

Monday, September 4, 2017 3:03 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 4, 2017 3:03 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond scours the baseball slate each day looking to deliver its top two MLB picks based on pitching matchups, historical trends and of course reaping the best value from the MLB oddsmakers. Let's see what Monday's board holds in store for us.

Cubs (75-61, -16.7 Units) at Pirates (65-72, -7.0 Units)
  • Pittsburgh is 6-13 (-11.1 Units) in home games in September games over the last two seasons.
  • Pittsburgh is 28-33 (-6.6 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 6-10 (-4.6 Units) when playing on Monday this season.
  • Chicago is 26-12 (+3.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
  • Chicago is 36-24 (+0.6 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Chicago is 17-9 (+5.7 Units) in games played at Pittsburgh over the last three seasons.

The Cubs' six-game winning streak was snapped last night in a 5-1 loss to the Braves. But Monday they will rebound with a victory because Jake Arrieta is on the hill and has historically fared very well against the Pirates, as evidenced by his 14-6 team record vs. them. In addition, Arrieta has been razor sharp over his last three outings with a 0.50 ERA and a 2-0 mark.

On the flipside, the Pirates are handing the ball to Chad Kuhl, who is 0-4 when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 11.07 and a WHIP of 2.51. Kuhl also has a 4-5 home record with an ERA of 4.86 in front of the fan friendlies this season. The Bucs have not handled the Cubs well when hosting them at PNC Park. Pittsburgh is 9-17 at home over the last three seasons against Chicago and today will be no different. Back the Cubbies in your MLB picks today!

Free MLB Pick: Cubs -170Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Diamondbacks (79-58, +18.4 Units) at Dodgers (92-44, +23.7 Units)
  • Los Angeles is 32-25 (-8.4 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • Los Angeles is 6-7 (-5.2 Units) when playing on Monday this season.
  • Los Angeles is 1-3 (-5.0 Units) in September games.
  • Arizona is 34-23 (+12.1 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • Arizona is 56-38 (+14.4 Units) in night games this season.
  • Arizona is 48-30 (+15.9 Units) after a win this season.

The best team in baseball through the first five months of the season has suddenly lost eight of its last nine while their nearest rivals have reeled off 10 consecutive wins. And now these NL West foes meet again after Arizona swept the Dodgers in the desert last week. I had to look twice at the MLB odds after noting that LA is a significant favorite in this matchup. Anything north of -150 is significant in my book, and as of this Monday morning writing LA is being offered at anywhere from -153 to -160 depending on where you shop.

Arizona's Robbie Ray has been lights out recently and just faced this Dodgers' lineup with great success last week when he ripped through nearly seven innings and allowed only one run to LA in the Diamondbacks' 6-4 victory. Ray has a micro 1.36 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP over his last three. Since coming off the DL after a month on the shelf, Ray has surrendered a combined two runs in wins over the Dodgers and Mets. Let's grab the juice that the oddsmakers are giving us and back the white-hot Snakes over the free-falling Dodgers.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +148Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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