Mining the Diamond: Road Dogs Set to Cash in Monday's MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Monday, May 29, 2017 3:24 PM UTC

Monday, May. 29, 2017 3:24 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column focusing on pitching matchups, historical trends and value in terms of the MLB odds. Let's lock onto a pair of winners for Monday and continue to cash.

Brewers (27-23, +8.7 units) vs. Mets (21-27, -12.6 units)

* New York is 55-53 (-23.3 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.

* New York is  2-9 (-8.4 Units) in day games this season.

* New York is 41-40 (-22.1 Units) in home games against right-handed starters over the last two seasons.

* Milwaukee is 13-8 (+9.1 Units) in road games this season.

* Milwaukee is 11-6 (+8.4 Units) in road games against right-handed starters this season.

* Milwaukee is 6-1 (+7.6 units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

I'm a bit perplexed as to why the MLB odds tend to skew the Mets higher than most. Thursday night we saw great value in the San Diego Padres getting a healthy return against the heavily favored Mets. Sure, the Padres are lousy but should the Mets ever be a big favorite? The same goes here as the woeful Mets are favored against a Brewers team that is 3-0 against them this year and boasts a winning record on the season.

The Mets' starter today, Robert Gsellman, got torched in his last start just a little over two weeks ago in Milwaukee. The Brewers lit him up for six runs before he was driven from the game after the fourth inning in an 11-4 Milwaukee victory. Now he returns to face the same lineup, and though the venue has shifted the results will be roughly the same.

Matt Garza is on the hill for the Brewers and his last start against the Mets occurred a little over two weeks ago as well when he pitched six solid innings, allowing just two runs in a 7-4 Milwaukee win. The fact that we get the better team with the better pitcher against a team with no home field advantage to speak of, as evidenced by New York's 11-15 (-10.5 units) mark at Citi Field vs. Milwaukee's 13-8 (+9.1 units) road record, give us no choice but to include the Brew Crew in our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers +126Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Braves (21-27, -2.7 units) vs. Angels (26-27, -1.8 units)

* Los Angeles is 17-21 (-4.9 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

* Los Angeles is 87-103 (-15.9 units) after a loss over the last three seasons.

* Los Angeles' starter Rickey Nolasco's team record is 1-10 (-9.1 Units) in May games over the last two seasons.

* Atlanta is 38-35 (+24.8 Units) in road games in night games over the last two seasons.

* Atlanta is 46-44 (+16.4 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.

* Atlanta's starter Julio Teheran is 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in four road starts this season.

When Julio Teheran is on, there are few better pitchers in the league but he has had a spotty season thus far, spiking his stats in the wrong direction. Yet all of his issues have come at home because on the road Teheran has been a beast. The 26-year-old Colombian export has allowed a grand total of two runs in four road starts and, against an Angels lineup that is close to the bottom third in offensive production, I don't see any issues with backing the road team in this matchup tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Braves +126Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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