Mining the Diamond: Road Dogs Howl Tonight in Monday’s MLB Picks

MiningTheDiamond

Swinging Johnson

Monday, August 7, 2017 2:47 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 7, 2017 2:47 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond had a successful run this weekend, connecting on five of our six MLB picks and turning all this hard work into cold, hard cash. Let’s discuss our two top plays for Monday’s slate as we look to continue our run.

Padres (49-61, +1.5 Units) at Reds (45-66, -13.4 Units)
  • Cincinnati is 25-39 (-9.2 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Cincinnati is 29-40 (-5.9 Units) in night games this season.
  • Cincinnati is 22-31 (-6.7 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • San Diego is 30-25 (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • San Diego is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against the Reds this season.
  • San Diego is 11-5 (+5.9 Units) against the Reds over the last three seasons.

Both teams are playing out the string with no postseason aspirations, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a clear-cut choice in this matchup as they begin a four-game set at the Great American Ball Park. The Padres have won five of their last seven meetings in Cincinnati, and tonight that streak continues.

Perhaps the most attractive piece of this wager is the fact that San Diego will send Jhoulys Chacin to the bump to take care of business in the same fashion that has become familiar over his last three outings. Chacin has been baffling hitters, manifesting in a 3-0 record and a 1.96 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over his last three performances.

Conversely, the Reds’ starter Tim Adleman has gone 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over his last three appearances. Neither team boasts anything close to an explosive offense, which is why Chacin should coast as he did in seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Twins in his last effort, resulting in a 3-0 Padres victory. This pitching mismatch is begging us to include San Diego in our MLB picks and we will oblige.

Free MLB Pick: Padres +107Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Brewers (59-54, +14.0 Units) at Twins (53-56, +0.1 Units)
  • Minnesota is 9-18 (-12.0 Units) in home games after a win this season.
  • Minnesota is 22-44 (-20.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 35-55 (-21.7 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
  • Milwaukee is 11-5 (+10.0 Units) in inter-league games this season.
  • Milwaukee is 39-31 (+15.5 Units) in night games this season.
  • Milwaukee is 29-24 (+7.4 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

The Brewers saw their modest three-game winning streak snapped last night in Tampa Bay by the score of 2-1, but their pitching continues to impress recently as they have held the opposition to 1.88 runs over their last nine games. But tonight their offense has a chance to shine as they face Minnesota’s struggling Ervin Santana.

Santana takes a 1-1 record and a 5.21 ERA over his last three into this matchup and his team record is 0-3 (-5.0 Units) when starting against the Brewers with an ERA of 7.41 and a WHIP of 1.94 in his three career meetings with Milwaukee. But check these trends out as well.

  • Santana’s team record is 2-9 (-10.8 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.
  • Santana’s team record is 8-18 (-13.6 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.
  • Santana’s team record is 3-11 (-10.7 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Santana’s team record is 1-10 (-10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

The MLB odds on the Brewers have dropped precipitously since the opening line of +118 to a virtual pick’em as of this mid-morning writing. Let’s grab the small road dog and crack an Old Milwaukee as the Brewers cash for us tonight.

MLB Picks: Brewers +104Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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