Mining the Diamond: Road Dogs Howl on Thursday, May 4

aj griffin rangers

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, May 4, 2017 3:25 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond has locked on to a pair of gems after researching historical trends, pitching matchups and value in terms of the posted MLB odds. Let’s take a look at our two featured MLB picks for Thursday night.

Rangers (11-17, -6.7 units) At Astros (19-9, +7.0 units)
  • Houston is 4-15 (-14.4 units) when playing on a Thursday over the last two seasons.
  • Houston is 54-43 (-8.4 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.
  • Houston is 29-29 (-6.1 units) after three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.
  • Texas is 52-31 (+22.0 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Texas is 81-64 (+16.3 Units) against right-handed starters over the last two seasons.
  • Texas’s starter A.J. Griffin is 5-0 when starting against the Astros with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.055. His team's record is 7-0 (+8.0 units) in these starts.

This is a value play here as the Rangers’ A.J. Griffin has been immaculate when facing the Astros. His teams (Athletics and Rangers) have won all seven starts he has had against Houston, and we see the same scenario playing out here at a more than generous price that the MLB odds makers are hanging. Griffin is coming off six innings of shutout ball, allowing just one hit over his former team the Oakland A’s, which resulted in a 7-0 Texas victory. The caveat emptor here is that he is also coming off rehab for an ankle injury that has kept him sidelined since that April 17 start against Oakland. Nevertheless, Texas is the play here with Griffin keeping his streak alive against Houston.

Free MLB Pick: Rangers +143Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Mets (12-15, -7.0 units) At Braves (11-15, -2.3 units)
  • Atlanta is 23-45 (-20.3 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Atlanta’s starter Jaime Garcia is 37-44 (-26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record throughout his career (Team's Record).
  • Atlanta is 4-10 (-4.9 units) after a loss this season.
  • Atlanta is 6-11 (-5.0 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • New York is 38-22 (+14.4 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.
  • New York’s starter Zack Wheeler is 14-7 (+11.4 Units) in night road games throughout his career (Team's Record).
  • New York is 7-2 (+5.8 units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

The Mets have won four of their last six games, including an absolute pummeling of the Braves on Wednesday by the score of 16-5 and have averaged nearly eight runs per contest. In addition, they have Zack Wheeler chucking in this one, and the 26-year-old Georgia native owns a 4-2 record vs. Atlanta with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.306. In his last start, Wheeler allowed one earned run on five hits in what resulted in a 5-3 road win over Washington. The Braves hand the ball to Jaime Garcia, who has a 2-4 mark in his career starts vs. the Mets with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.160. The pitching matchup is fairly even, but the Mets' lineup has been producing as of late, climbing the ladder as the now No. 7 offense in the majors, and should be buoyed by their fireworks from last night, which is why New York will be included in our MLB picks at a generous price.

Free MLB Pick: Mets +113Best Line Offered: GTBets

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