Mining the Diamond: Reds & Rockies Ready to Roll in Friday’s MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond Aug 4

Swinging Johnson

Friday, August 4, 2017 2:48 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 4, 2017 2:48 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that analyzes pitching matchups, historical trends and the value rendered by the odds on those selections. Let’s look at Friday’s MLB slate and cash a ticket.

Cardinals (53-55, -9.9 Units) at Reds (44-64, -11.8 Units)
  • Cincinnati is 21-18 (+7.9 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • Cincinnati is 16-13 (+3.8 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Cincinnati is 19-13 (+5.9 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
  • St. Louis is 18-27 (-15.0 Units) against division opponents this season.
  • St. Louis is 39-44 (-12.3 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • St. Louis’ starter Mike Leake’s team record is 0-7 (-11.1 Units) when starting against the Reds with an ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.50.

The number that sticks out is Cardinals’ starter Mike Leake’s hellacious record against his former team. The veteran righty has a mental hurdle he has been unable to climb, as evidenced by the fact that his team has yet to win a game in all seven of his starts against Cincinnati, because he is a serviceable pitcher otherwise.

In addition, the Reds are 7-3 (+6.5 Units) in all games between the two clubs this season and 4-0 at the Great American Ball Park. We feel we the MLB odds are rendering value here as the Reds are actually the home dogs in this one which means the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite. Let’s back Cincinnati in our MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Picks: Reds +109Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Phillies (39-67, -19.7 Units) at Rockies (62-47, +15.8 Units)
  • Colorado is 33-20 (+10.0 Units) in home games this season
  • Colorado is 34-27 (+7.4 Units) after a win this season.
  • Colorado is 16-7 (+7.8 Units) at home when the total is 11 to 11.5.
  • Philadelphia is 19-46 (-23.2 Units) in night games this season.
  • Philadelphia is 16-39 (-15.2 Units) in road games this season.
  • Philadelphia is 20-47 (-21.4 Units) after a loss this season.

If all you did was fade the Phillies this season, you’d be doing quite nicely. We faded them last night and although we had to sweat the game until the Angels rallied for two runs in the eighth, we cashed a ticket in LA’s 5-4 victory. Tonight is more of the same as Colorado is 3-1 against Philadelphia this season and their starter Kyle Freeland is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings. He sparkled in his last start, going seven innings of shutout ball, in Colorado’s 2-1 win over the Braves last Sunday.

Let’s lay the lumber and like it as we catch a Phillies team undoubtedly deflated from last night’s 5-4 loss and getting broomed out of Los Angeles. They now face the 3rd ranked offense in the league versus their dismal 29th ranked lineup and this won’t be pretty for the Phills.

Free MLB Picks: Rockies -148Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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