Mining the Diamond: Reds Rock & Rox Roll in Sunday's MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, September 17, 2017 2:25 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 17, 2017 2:25 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB handicapping column focusing on pitching matchups, historical trends, and the value rendered by the MLB odds. Let's wrap up our week in style as we deliver two winning wagers on Sunday's slate.

Pirates (68-80, -11.2 Units) at Reds (64-84, -7.7 Units)

* Cincinnati is 25-16 (+10.1 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Cincinnati is  34-32 (+10.0 Units) against division opponents this season.

* Cincinnati is 24-17 (+6.8 Units) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

* Pittsburgh is 29-47 (-12.9 Units) in road games this season.

* Pittsburgh is 15-27 (-11.5 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

* Pittsburgh is 33-47 (-14.4 Units) after a loss this season.

The Pirates have dropped nine of their last 10 games and are looking to avoid a sweep by the Reds in the third and final game of this three-game set. Meanwhile, the Reds are playing some of their best baseball of the season despite that bar being relatively low for a team that is 64-84 entering this game. Cincinnati has won three of their last four and are 12-6 (+8.2 Units) against the Pirates this season.

Gerrit Cole is chucking for the Bucs and it would be an understatement to say he has not fared well against the Reds throughout his career. Cole's team record is 1-10 (-12.4 Units) when starting against Cincinnati with an ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.39 while Reds' pitcher Robert Stephenson's team record is 3-1 (+3.2 Units) in his career starts versus Pittsburgh. The home team has won far more than they have lost against their opponents today and yet the MLB odds makers are making them a slight underdog despite the fact that the opposing pitcher Gerrit Cole has a miserable track record against them. Back the Reds in your MLB picks today!

Free MLB Pick: Reds +102Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Padres (65-82, +3.0 Units) at Rockies (81-67, +17.2 Units)

* Colorado is 39-27 (+17.4 Units) against division opponents this season.

* Colorado is 33-20 (+13.6 Units) in day games this season.

* Colorado is 44-37 (+7.5 Units) after a win this season.

* San Diego is 31-64 (-21.0 Units) in day games over the last two seasons.

* San Diego is 13-35 (-17.8 Units) when playing on Sunday over the last two seasons.

* San Diego is 27-49 (-7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

if the big leagues had a mercy rule then yesterday's game would have been over in the seventh inning after the Rockies dropped 16 runs on the hapless San Diego Padres. It will be more of the same today as the Padres used a total of five pitchers and won't have many fresh arms coming out of the pen if their starter Jhoulys Chacin gets touched early. Speaking of Chacin, his only start against the Rockies came back on June 3rd when he surrendered four runs through six innings in what resulted in a 10-1 Colorado victory. The Rockies are 6-2 (+2.7 Units) versus the Padres at home this season and 10-4 in all games played between the two clubs in 2017.

Of the six games the Rockies have won at home against the Padres, all but one was by a margin of two or more. We see a tired and defeated San Diego squad looking to get out of town and back home after this one is through. Let's trim all that juice on the money line and instead opt to lay 1 ½ on the run line. Watch the Rox roll again this afternoon!

Free MLB Pick: Rockies -1 ½ (-105)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
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