Mining the Diamond: Reds on the Road & Redbirds in Game 1 Cash in Tuesday’s MLB Picks

Lynn goes to battle for the cardinals

Tuesday, June 13, 2017 2:56 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond cashed with the Yankees yesterday but flamed with the underdog Rockies in our MLB picks. But we are locked in on two premium plays for Tuesday and ready to fatten our bankroll.

Reds (29-34, -0.5 units) vs. Padres (25-40, -9.1 units)
  • San Diego is 19-29 (-5.3 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • San Diego is 7-12 (-4.2 Units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • San Diego is 10-22 (-10.5 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 in all games this season.

  • Cincinnati is 17-16 (+2.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

  • Cincinnati’s starting pitcher Scott Feldman is 2-0 when starting against the Padres with an ERA of 2.40 and a WHIP of 0.733.

We find a bit of value on the Reds in this one as the MLB odds makers know the public will be fading them due to their recent four-game winless streak, including last night’s 9-3 drubbing by San Diego. However, Reds’ starting pitcher Scott Feldman has been stellar in his two career appearances against the Padres and this year’s edition has an anemic offense as evidenced by their cellar dwelling offensive status with just 233 runs plated this season.

Last night’s nine-run explosion was certainly the exception, and not the rule, so we suspect this weak-kneed lineup will return to form tonight against a Cincinnati offense that is surprisingly potent (ranked 6th with 320 runs scored) and should overwhelm the Padres’ starter Clayton Richard who has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in his last three appearances. Back the road small chalk in your MLB picks tonight.

MLB Pick: Reds -110Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

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Brewers (33-31, +8.2 units) vs. Cardinals (29-32, -7.8 units)
  • St. Louis is 3-0 (+3.0Unitss) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • St. Louis is 30-15 (+7.2 Units) against the Brewers over the last three seasons.

  • St. Louis’ starter Lance Lynn is 8-2 when starting against the Brewers with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 1.233.

  • Milwaukee is 118-166 (-31.1 Units) against right-handed starters over the last three seasons.

  • Milwaukee is 93-188 (-11.9 Units) after a loss over the last three seasons.

  • Milwaukee’s starter Jimmy Nelson is 0-7 when starting against the Cardinals with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.629.

Both teams had last night off as they enter this four-game series in St. Louis but while the Cardinals are in the midst of a three-game winning streak, the Brewers have dropped three of their last four including an 11-1 thrashing at the hands of the Diamondbacks in their last performance.

However, the most glaring disparity is the historical trends between the starting pitchers going today in the first leg of a double-header. St. Louis’ starter Lance Lynn has fashioned an 8-2 record with a 2.36 ERA against Milwaukee while Brewers’ starter Jimmy Nelson has gotten torched by the Redbirds to the tune of a 0-7 mark with a 6.75 ERA. Let’s go with the hot team, at their home field, with a historical pitching mismatch in their favor.

MLB Pick: Cardinals -139Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

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