Mining the Diamond: Redbirds and Snakes Poised to Cash in Wednesday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, June 7, 2017 2:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 7, 2017 2:59 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond has scouted Wednesday’s card and after review the pitching matchups, historical and trends and odds is prepared to deliver two top plays in our MLB picks tonight!

Cardinals (26-30, -8.4 units) vs. Reds (27-30, +1.4 units)
  • Cincinnati is 12-13 (-0.4 units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

  • Cincinnati is 65-93 (-21.0 units) after a win over the last three seasons.

  • Cincinnati is 16-33 (-10.1 units) as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last three seasons.

  • St. Louis is 5-1 (+5.1 units) when playing on Wednesday this season.

  • St. Louis is 18-7 (+10.6 units) after three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.

  • St. Louis’ starter Lance Lynn’s team record is 11-4 (+6.2) units when starting against the Reds with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.143.

The public will look at this game and fade the Cardinals, having dropped their last five straight, but we see a glaring pitching mismatch favoring St. Louis. Lance Lynn has pitched well this season but a lack of run support has his record at a pedestrian 4-3 on the season but he boasts a solid 2.97 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has also had a great deal of success against the Reds throughout his career with his team winning 11 of those 15 contests.

In addition, he will be facing veteran Bronson Arroyo who brings a bloated 6.24 ERA to the mound and a team record of 14-25 (-9.5 units) versus the Cardinals in his career with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in those games. These are two evenly matched teams but Cincinnati has won the first two games of this four-game set which has also tempered the MLB odds on the road favorite in this one. Let’s lay the lumber and get a better number than we should by backing the Redbirds in our MLB picks on Wednesday night.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -130Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Padres (23-36, -6.9 units) vs. Diamondbacks (35-25, +10.4 units)
  • Arizona is 22-8 (+13.7 units) in home games this season.

  • Arizona is 28-14 (+13.6 units) in night games this season.

  • Arizona’s starter Zack Greinke’s team record is 28-7 (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.

  • San Diego is 13-22 (-6.3 units) after a loss this season.

  • San Diego is 12-21 (-7.0 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

  • San Diego is 10-20 (-6.3 units) on the road this season.

This is a very chalky play to be sure but our criteria dictates that we bet the top plays with the most betting value and, believe it or not, the D-Backs are not as high as they should be even at a whopping -185. The Padres’ starter Luis Perdomo (0-2, 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)  got absolutely lit up in his last start against Arizona a little over two weeks ago when he surrendered eight runs on 11 hits and lasted just three innings in the 9-1 loss to the Diamondbacks.

In Arizona’s seven victories over the Padres this season, six of those wins were decided by two or more runs. Let’s back the Snakes on the run line and save us all that juice in the event this game goes sideways and Zack Greinke uncharacteristically disappoints. We don’t believe that will happen as this will be another blowout win for the home club.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1 ½ (+105)Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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