Mining the Diamond: Red Sox and Redbirds Run Line Bookie Busters in Wednesday’s MLB Picks

Red Sox Mining The Diamond

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 20, 2017 4:00 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 20, 2017 4:00 PM GMT

Yesterday was a split but today we get healthy with two of our top MLB picks on Wednesday’s slate of games. Let’s discuss our selections below and the value we are getting in terms of the MLB odds.

Cardinals (78-72, -6.0 Units) at Reds (66-85, -7.7 Units)
  • Cincinnati is 42-54 (-5.4 Units) in night games this season.
  • Cincinnati is 27-39 (3.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • Cincinnati is 36-47 (-2.7 Units) after a loss this season.
  • St. Louis is 11-6 (+4.4 Units) in September games this season.
  • St. Louis is 48-33 (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • St. Louis is 12-8 (+3.4 Units) when playing on Wednesday this season.

Both teams used eight pitchers last night in the Cardinals’ 8-7 extra-innings victory. But that will be an enormous advantage for St. Louis tonight because their starter, Luke Weaver, has been stellar in his recent efforts and has averaged nearly seven innings per game over his last three.

Conversely, the Reds starter tonight, Rookie Davis, has averaged just four innings of work per contest over his last three and if that trend continues, his bullpen will be put to the task again tonight. That will be easy pickin’s for this Cardinals’ offense, particularly when their starter Luke Weaver has been mowing lineups down resulting in a 3-0 mark and a sizzling 0.96 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over his last three appearances. Weaver’s most recent start came against this same Reds’ lineup a week ago when he held them to just two hits through six innings and no earned runs in his team’s 5-2 victory. The MLB odds are a bit steep on the Cardinals, as they should be, therefore we will shift gears and back the Redbirds on the run line in our MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -1 ½ (-105)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 Red Sox (87-64, +5.7 Units) at Orioles (73-79, -8.9 Units)
  • Baltimore is 51-54 (-4.8 Units) in night games this season.
  • Baltimore is 33-44 (-12.0 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Baltimore is 34-47 (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • Boston is 30-20 (+5.9 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Boston is 47-24 (+22.1 Units) in September games over the last three seasons.
  • Boston is 41-27 (+3.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

The Red Sox are a stunning 15-3 in extra inning games after last night’s 1-0 win in 11 frames. They return to Camden Yards gunning for a sweep over their divisional rivals and endeavoring to stay ahead of the Yankees, only three games back from the division lead. Boston couldn’t have a better guy taking the hill than Cy Young candidate Chris Sale who has notched wins in his last four starts versus Baltimore dating back to May of 2015.

Baltimore will keep their fingers crossed that Wade Miley gets back on track, having gotten torched in his last appearance when he allowed six runs and recorded just one out against the Yankees before being chased in the first inning. The Boston bats don’t stay silent for long and with a +114 run differential this season (versus Baltimore’s -63), we see the Sox getting the sweep with an AL East title in their sights.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -1 ½ (-114)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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