Mining the Diamond: Pittsburgh Live Dog & Tribe on Warpath in Sunday's Plays

Pirates pitcher Chad Kuhl

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, April 30, 2017 3:14 PM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 30, 2017 3:14 PM GMT

Yesterday we cashed in our picks with a big underdog in the Chicago White Sox and we are back at it again, perusing the MLB odds and mining data for historical trends and premium matchups.

Pirates (11-12, +0.1 units) vs. Marlins (10-12, -1.9 units)

* Miami is 50-62 (-16.5 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the past three seasons.

* Miami is 123-152 (-31.8 units) against right-handed starters over the past three seasons.

* Miami is 83-101 (-14.1 units) after a loss over the past three seasons.

* Pittsburgh is 110-76 (+24.6 units) after a win over the past three seasons.

* Pittsburgh is 3-0 (+3.6 units) when playing on Sunday this season.

* Pittsburgh is 92-59 (+10.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the past three seasons.

The Pirates have won the first two games of this series and will make it a sweep today. They have had tremendous success against the Marlins' starter Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.14 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) who is 0-4 when starting against Pittsburgh with an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.607. His team's record is 1-4 (-2.0 units) in these starts and the Bucs appear to be on a bit of a roll with three consecutive wins under their belts and a starter in Chad Kuhl who has had one bad outing buttressed by three solid performances this season. Let's go with the live road dog in our MLB picks this afternoon.

 

Free MLB Pick: Pittsburgh +122Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Mariners (11-14, -2.3 units) vs. Indians (13-10, -3.7 units)

* Cleveland is 31-12 (+13.1 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.

* Cleveland's starter Josh Tomlin is 31-16 (+15.5 Units) all games over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

* Cleveland's starter Josh Tomlin is 4-1 when starting against the Mariners with an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 0.984. His team's record is 5-1 (+5.2 units) in these starts. 

* Seattle is 82-89 (-9.0 units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

* Seattle is 24-31 (-12.0 units) when playing on Sunday over the last three seasons.

* Seattle is 18-34 (-9.1 units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last three seasons.

The oddsmakers are cognizant of the fact that the public will look at Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin and notice his bloated 9.32 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. That will translate into Seattle being viewed as a live dog at a fairly substantial price. However, if we look at what Tomlin has done this season we will notice his two rough outings to start the season have drastically skewed his numbers. His most recent two appearances have been solid in which he allowed three runs in six innings of work in both a win over Minnesota and a loss against Houston. But what we are focusing on is Seattle's young starter Chase De Jong who has never started a game in the major leagues and has faced a total of 19 batters at the big league level. Factor in that the Mariners' bullpen has an ERA of 6.29 and a WHIP of 1.43 and this will be easy pickin's for the Tribe who will knock the young De Jong out early and feast on the Seattle bullpen the rest of the way.

 

Free MLB Pick: Indians -150Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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