Mining the Diamond: Pitching Mismatch in the Queen City

jon lester cubs

Swinging Johnson

Friday, April 21, 2017 3:37 PM GMT

We locked on to a pair of winners Thursday night as Mining the Diamond continues to produce results in our daily MLB picks. Let’s peruse the board and scout out two more winners for Friday.

Cubs (8-7, -3.8 units) At Reds (9-7, +4.5 units)
  • Chicago is 52-20 (+22.2 units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the past three seasons.
  • Chicago is 134-80 (+26.2 units) in night games over the past three seasons.
  • Chicago is 15-4 (+9.1 units) against the Reds in games played Cincinnati.
  • Cincinnati is 13-29 (10.3 units) as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the past three seasons.
  • Cincinnati is 66-114 (-25.6 units) against teams with a winning record over the past three seasons.
  • Cincinnati is 94-132 (-19.6 units) in night games over the past three seasons.

The MLB odds makers have installed the visiting Cubs as anywhere from a -172 to a -190 favorite depending on where you shop, so make sure you have plenty of options when you make your wagers because getting the best number will positively impact your bankroll over the grind that is the MLB season. We have made our own line on this game and believe the Cubbies should be just north of -200; therefore, getting Chicago at 30 cents lower means betting value for us. Jon Lester (0-0, 1.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) has absolutely dazzled in his three starts this season yet doesn’t have a win to show for it. The four-time All-Star and three-time world champion has faced the Reds nine times in his career, and his team has won eight of those starts with Lester posting a 3.32 ERA and a sizzling 0.93 WHIP. Back the Cubbies here in your MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Cubs -172Best Line Offered: JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140684, "sportsbooksIds":[1275,19,169,1096,93], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Dodgers (8-8, -4.4 units) At Diamondbacks (10-7, +5.3 units)
  • Los Angeles is 81-95 (-43.8 units) on the road over the past three seasons.
  • Los Angeles is 17-26 (-20.1 units) with a day off over the past three seasons.
  • Los Angeles is 2-5 (-5.5 units) after a win this season.
  • Arizona is 6-1 (+6.4 units) at home this season.
  • Arizona is 4-0 (+4.3 units) when the money line is between +125 to – 125 this season.
  • Arizona is 4-1 (+3.8 units) when the total is between 9 to 9.5 this season.

The Dodgers will send their reliever/starter Alex Wood to the hill in this one after making only one start this season when he pitched just 3.2 innings, allowing two runs in what resulted in a 3-2 setback to the Cubs on April 10. Wood’s last appearance at Chase Field was in September 2015 when he was torched for eight runs in a little over one inning of work, which set the table for a 12-4 Arizona victory. The Snakes will have Taijuan Walker chuckin’ after he virtually silenced this same Dodgers lineup in his last start, pitching five innings and limiting LA to one run on four hits in a 3-1 D-Backs win. Let’s grab the home team at a decent price.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +129Best Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139543, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,1680,169,274,93], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]