Mining the Diamond: Padres & Jays Cash in Saturday's MLB Picks

Padres pitcher Jhoulys Chacín in action

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, September 30, 2017 3:22 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 30, 2017 3:22 PM GMT

Yesterday we cashed with the underdog Colorado Rockies over the LA Dodgers but flamed when the Diamondbacks came up just short to the Royals. Let's discuss our two top MLB picks on Saturday's card.

Padres (70-90, +3.2 Units) at Giants (63-97, -37.2 Units)

* San Francisco is 51-62 (-21.9 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.

* San Francisco is 8-17 (-12.0 Units) when playing on Saturday this season.

* San Francisco is 20-41 (-24.1 Units) after a win this season.

* San Diego is 36-30 (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

* San Diego is 27-25 (+10.6 Units) when playing on Saturday over the last two seasons.

* San Diego is 8-4 (+8.7 Units) after getting shutout this season.

The Padres may have dropped the first game of this three-game season-ending series to the Giants by the score of 8-0 last night but San Diego is still 5-3 in the eight meetings at AT&T Park this year. In addition, they have Jhoulys Chacin on the hill who pitched his way to a 5-0 victory over the Rockies in his last start and has a few notable trends working in his favor for this one.

- Chacin's team record is 10-6 (+9.6 Units) against division opponents this season.

- Chacin's team record is 12-7 (+8.3 Units) after a loss this season.

- Chacin is 8-7 when starting against the Giants with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.15 over his career.

On the flip side, San Francisco's Matt Cain's team record is 13-24 (-15.4 Units) in his career starts versus the Padres. Let's back the visitors against a dismal Giants team looking for a merciful end to what has been a dreadful 2017 season.
 

Free MLB Pick: Padres -109Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Blue Jays (75-85, -19.1 Units) at Yankees (90-70, +0.3 Units)

* New York is 39-32 (-7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

* New York is 47-42 (-7.0 Units) after a win this season.

* New York is 2-4 (-2.8 Units) after shutting out their opponent this season.

* Toronto is 45-38 (+1.9 Units) after a loss this season.

* Toronto's starter Marcus Stroman's team record is 8-4 (+3.3 Units) when starting against the Yankees with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.13 over his career.

* Toronto is 34-21 (+11.1 Units) in all games versus the Yankees over the last three seasons.

The line on the Bombers is high for a reason. The linesmakers understand that the Yankees have momentum and incentive on their side today in the form of wresting the AL East crown from the Boston Red Sox. But we don't believe in emotion, we believe in trends, matchups and the value rendered by the MLB odds.

The Yankees are switching it up and making a last-minute pitching replacement with C.C. Sabathia getting the nod over Jaime Garcia in this pivotal game. Neither is as good as Toronto's Marcus Stroman who takes a 1.93 ERA over his last three into this one and has had tremendous success against New York over his career. Grab the juice and back the Jays in your MLB picks.
 

Free MLB Pick: Blue Jays +155Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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