Mining the Diamond: Nats & Snakes Poised to Cash on the Highway in Friday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Friday, August 18, 2017 3:48 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 18, 2017 3:48 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond is looking for a sweep in our MLB picks as we roll on from Thursday's 1-1 split. Let’s review the baseball slate and deliver two winners on Friday’s card as we roar into the weekend.

Nationals (72-47, +4.6 Units) at Padres (54-67, +2.0 Units)
  • San Diego is 18-35 (-8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • San Diego is 1-3 (-1.8 Units) versus Washington this season.
  • San Diego is 29-37 (-0.2 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Washington is 18-7 (+10.9 Units) on the road when the total is seven or less over the last two seasons.
  • Washington is 50-22 (+20.6 Units) in night games this season.
  • Washington is 25-11 (+13.1 Units) in road games after a win this season.

There has been a noticeable power outage in Washington’s offense, currently ranked 2nd in the majors, since All-Star Bryce Harper was sidelined with a bone bruise after just one at-bat in the Aug. 12 victory over the Giants. The Nationals have averaged only three runs per game since his departure and squeaked out a 2-1 win over the Padres Thursday in the series opener. However, Washington won’t need much production with their ace Max Scherzer on the hill here. Mad Max is 12-5 on the season with a 2.25 ERA and a micro 0.85 WHIP. His stats on the road are even more impressive with an 8-2 record, 1.79 ERA and a stellar 0.81 WHIP.

His counter number is San Diego’s Luis Perdomo, who totes a 1-2 mark and a 6.00 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over his last three appearances. The MLB odds are tough to swallow if you’re inclined to backing the Nats, but we believe their bats will come alive while Scherzer shuts down a weak San Diego lineup ranked dead last in Major League Baseball. Therefore, we will eschew the high price and embrace the run line here as one of our two MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Nationals -1½ (-119)Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Diamondbacks (67-54, -7.4 Units) at Twins (60-59, +4.8 Units)
  • Minnesota is 58-86 (-31.8 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 11-19 (-11.0 Units) in home games after a win this season.
  • Minnesota is 25-46 (-18.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.
  • Arizona is 29-17 (+10.9 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Arizona is 11-3 (+9.1 Units) in an inter-league game this season.
  • Arizona is 54-40 (+11.2 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

This is the opener of a three-game interleague set between these squads, and we believe the National League visitors will come out on top, at a price that is too tempting to turn down. Both Zack Godley (5-5, 2.95 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) of Arizona and Minnesota’s Ervin Santana (12-7, 3.28 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) are upper-tier pitchers, but there are a few trends that tip the scales in favor of the Snakes, not to mention a D-Backs offense that has plated 43 more runs to date and has a +/- differential of +105, while the Twins are -61 on the year.

  • Godley’s team record is 21-11 (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last two seasons.
  • Godley’s team record is 16-6 (+12.5 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Santana’s team record is 9-18 (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.

Santana is just 4-5 at home with a 4.01 ERA, and we suspect the Diamondbacks will be able to wear the veteran pitcher down and then torch a Twins’ pen that has a 4.90 ERA at home. The odds on the D-Backs look too generous to refuse.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -116Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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