Mining the Diamond: Nats & Cubs Cruise in Sunday's MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, July 16, 2017 3:06 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 16, 2017 3:06 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond has scoured the MLB odds, the pitching matchups and historical trends to deliver two top premium plays for Sunday. Let's cash some winners!

Nationals (54-36, -0.1 Units) at Reds (39-51, -4.4 Units)

* Cincinnati is 21-45 (-21.2 Units) when playing on Sunday over the last three seasons.

* Cincinnati is 14-20 (-3.7 Units) in day games this season.

* Cincinnati is 18-25 (-1.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

* Washington is 20-8 (+12.0 Units) in road games after a win this season.

* Washington is 15-10 (+5.4 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

* Washington is 28-17 (+7.8 Units) in road games this season.

The Nats are 4-1 (+2.5 Units) versus the Reds this season, including last night's 10-7 victory in the second of this four-game series. Washington also won the opener in which they blanked their hosts 5-0 on Friday night. Tanner Roark is taking the ball for Washington and he has recently struggled mightily, which is reflected in the MLB odds and one of the reasons why Washington is an attractive target today. However, there is a difference between a good pitcher mired in a slump and a bad pitcher being himself. The former applies to Roark and he has had eight days to get his head on straight and his mechanics on point.  

The reason we are bullish on the Nationals is: A) they are the vastly superior team, B) Homer Bailey is on the hill for the Reds and he too has been struggling, C) Washington has dominated Cincinnati this season, winning four of five and, D) the price is definitely right on the Nats.

MLB Picks: Nationals -103Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140936, "sportsbooksIds":[123,19,1096,139,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Cubs (45-45, -19.1 Units) at Orioles (42-48, -6.8 Units)

* Baltimore's starter Ubaldo Jimenez's team record is 42-56 (-23.5 Units) in day games over the course of his career.

* Baltimore is 18-28 (-10.6 Units) after a loss this season.

* Baltimore is 3-8 (-5.4 Units) in July games this season.

* Chicago is 44-20 (+14.2 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.

* Chicago is 6-2 (+3.7 Units) on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.

* Chicago's starter Jose Quintana's team record is 7-0 (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Jose Quintana could well get his shot at a World Series this season and the Chicago Cubs may yet defend their World Series title partly because of their most recent acquisition, Jose Quintana. This will be Q's first game in a Cubs' uniform and it should be a dandy. As stated above, Quintana is a bully against the weak sisters, owning a 7-0 team mark against teams with a losing record this season and it just so happens that Baltimore fits that bill.

The Cubbies are gunning for a series sweep after besting the Orioles 9-8 and 10-3 in the first two games of this three-game set. Jose Quintana will be jacked and pumped with his new lease on life and will be opposed by a Baltimore pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez whose team record is 1-4 when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 5.62 and a WHIP of 1.87. Let's back the better team with the better pitcher as the second of two MLB picks for Sunday.

MLB Picks: Cubs -135Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139496, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,19,139,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here