Mining the Diamond: MLB Odds & Stats Analysis for Today's Slate

Baltimore  Orioles

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, May 9, 2017 4:09 PM GMT

Tuesday night features a full slate of MLB action and Mining the Diamond has a pair of premium MLB picks in our crosshairs. Let’s review the MLB odds and analyze the matchups tonight.

Indians (17-14, -4.9 units) vs. Blue Jays (12-20, -10.2 units)
  • Toronto is 7-15 (-11.4 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

  • Toronto is 21-25 (-15.1 Units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.

  • Toronto’s starter Mike Bolsinger’s team record is 1-13 (-12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the course of his career.

  • Cleveland is 67-34 (+22.3 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.

  • Cleveland is 94-71 (+8.8 units) after a loss over the last three seasons.

  • Cleveland is 11-6 (+2.9 units) against right-handers this season.

At first blush this would appear to be a square play, laying a big number on the road, but even though we see MLB odds ranging from Cleveland -162 all the way up to -176 as of this Tuesday morning writing, it should be noted that the early opener on this game had the Indians as -145 favorites. Therefore, there is more than just square money pouring in on Cleveland because anything less than -200 is value, believe it or not. Why? Because this is a resounding fade on the Blue Jays’ Mike Bolsinger, who is 1-13 (-12.9 units) against teams with a winning record over his career, and it is his first start of 2017 after being summoned from Triple-A Buffalo. The Tribe should rip the novice pitcher and cruise to an easy victory.

Free MLB Pick: Indians -162Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Nationals (21-11, +5.8 units) vs. Orioles (21-10, +10.9 units)
  • Baltimore is 29-11 (+16.3 Units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.

  • Baltimore is 12-3 (+8.3 Units) in home games this season.

  • Baltimore is 13-4 (+8.9 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • Baltimore’s starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 6-2 when starting against the Nationals with an ERA of 2.24 and a WHIP of 1.127.

  • Washington is 34-49 (-23.1 Units) in road games after a loss over the last three seasons.

  • Washington is 24-30 (-12.8 units) when playing on Tuesdays over the last three seasons.

  • Washington is 3-8 (-7.0 units) vs. Baltimore over the last 11 games.

Despite the NL East leading Nationals trotting out their ace Max Scherzer to battle the Orioles tonight, I can’t help but wonder why the home club is getting so much return in this spot. Of course Scherzer is one of the best in the business but the Orioles are in a virtual dead heat for the top spot in the AL East with the Yankees and have won five straight, including last night’s 6-4 victory over the Nats. Baltimore’s starter Ubaldo Jimenez may not be in the same rarified air as Scherzer but he has a career 6-2 mark with a 2.24 ERA against Washington and his talented team is simply getting too much value here to ignore in our MLB picks for Tuesday night.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +140Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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