Mining the Diamond: Mets & Fish Value Plays in Friday’s MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond

Swinging Johnson

Friday, August 11, 2017 3:45 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 11, 2017 3:45 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column focusing on historical trends, pitching matchups and the odds rendered on each offering. Let’s discuss our two top selections for Friday’s slate.

Mets (51-61, -18.0 Units) at Phillies (42-70, -18.8 Units)
  • Philadelphia is 13-29 (-14.4 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Philadelphia is 21-49 (-23.2 Units) in night games this season.
  • Philadelphia is 21-49 (-22.4 Units) after a loss this season.
  • New York is 10-8 (1.8 Units) when playing on Fridays this season.
  • New York’s starter Seth Lugo’s team record is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.
  • New York’s starter Seth Lugo’s team record is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) after a win over the last two seasons.

Here we have a couple of weak sisters playing out the string with still another six weeks left to the 2017 regular season. But the Mets are coming off a 10-0 blanking of the Phillies last night in the opener of this four-game set and are turning to Seth Lugo to make it two straight.

Although Lugo has been middling this season as reflected by his 5-3 season record and 4.62 ERA, the trends coming into this one clearly deserve our attention. Over the last two seasons Lugo’s team record is 9-1 when playing against a sub .500 team, 9-0 after a win, and 9-1 in night games. His counter-number is Nick Pivetta who got absolutely smashed in the two plus innings he pitched against the Rockies in his last outing. Pivetta allowed eight runs (six earned) in his short stint that resulted in an 8-5 Philadelphia loss to Colorado. Let’s listen to the trends and fade the stumbling pitcher on a team reeling from a 10 run defeat just last night. Include the Mets in your MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Picks: Mets -103Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Rockies (65-49, +17.4 Units) at Marlins (53-60, -2.9 Units)
  • Miami is 30-29 (+4.8 Units) after a loss this season.
  • Miami is 10-4 (+5.9 Units) against the Rockies over the last three seasons.
  • Miami is 6-2 (+3.8 Units) against the Rockies in games played at Miami over the last three seasons.
  • Colorado is 5-17 (-13.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
  • Colorado’s starter Jon Gray’s team record is 1-13 (-12.7 Units) in road games after a win over the last three seasons.
  • Colorado’s starter Jon Gray’s team record is 1-9 (-8.8 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.

The numbers don’t lie which is why the MLB odds on this matchup appear to be a bit out of whack at first glance. Joe Q. Public will look at this game and the generous odds on the playoff contending Rockies and believe he is getting a steal over the also-ran Marlins. But when you peer behind the numbers you will notice the Marlins have not only handled Colorado in recent years but have actually beaten them up pretty good. The Marlins have won six of eight over the Rockies in games played at Miami over the last three seasons and their starter, Jose Urena, has been a good luck charm for a team with a sub .500 record. The Marlins have won 12 of 18 games started by the 25-year-old right-hander and the club is 2-0 in his starts against Colorado with Urena posting a 1.42 ERA and a stellar 0.86 WHIP in those appearances.

Meanwhile, Colorado sends Jon Gray to the hill who is 0-2 when starting against Miami with an ERA of 9.31 and a WHIP of 1.96. In addition, Gray’s team record is 1-13 (-12.7 Units) in road games after a win over the last three seasons. Let’s grab the small juice and back the Fish in this one.

Free MLB Picks: Marlins +108Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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