Mining the Diamond: Mets & Bucs Offer Value in Tuesday’s MLB Picks

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Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 2:50 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jul. 25, 2017 2:50 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond analyzes Tuesday’s baseball action with emphasis on pitching matchups, historical trends and the value rendered on the MLB odds board. Let’s take a look at two of our top picks below.

Mets (46-51, -13.2 Units) at Padres (43-56, -0.2 Units)
  • San Diego is 5-10 (-2.6 Units) when playing on Tuesday this season.
  • San Diego is 23-32 (-3.3 Units) after a loss this season.
  • San Diego is 19-29 (-5.8 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • New York is 27-16 (+12.8 Units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.
  • New York is 17-8 (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

I wouldn’t call this edition of New York’s “other team” the Amazin’ Mets, but suffice it to say they have been playing some of their best baseball recently. New York has won five of its last six, including last night’s 5-3 win over San Diego in the series opener, and now has an opportunity to pad that win streak over the next three games against the worst offensive team in baseball.

But more to the point, let’s look at the starting pitchers in tonight’s game. I ask that you peruse the alarming disparity between the Mets’ Seth Lugo and San Diego’s Jhoulys Chacin in terms of the pertinent trends in tonight’s matchup.

  • Lugo’s team record is 8-1 (+8.1 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Lugo’s team record is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) after a win over the last two seasons.
  • Lugo’s team record is 8-0 (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.
  • Chacin is 1-5 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 6.68 and a WHIP of 1.74.

The MLB odds make this a coin flip, but our power rating tell us that that the Mets should be more along the lines of -147 in this game. We see huge value here which is why we are backing New York in our MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Picks: Mets -101Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Pirates (50-50, +2.4 Units) at Giants (38-63, -28.9 Units)
  • San Francisco is 25-45 (-25.0 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • San Francisco is 4-14 (-11.3 Units) after allowing 10 runs or more over the last two seasons.
  • San Francisco is 25-38 (-14.3 Units) in night games this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 31-22 (+12.9 Units) against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.
  • Pittsburgh is 44-26 (+19.7 Units) in July games over the last three seasons.
  • Pittsburgh is 63-46 (+21.2 Units) in road games after a win over the last three seasons.

In addition to the Pirates' 7-0 record (+7.6 Units) in San Francisco over the last three seasons, the Giants are winless when their starting pitcher tonight, Madison Bumgarner, has taken the field. That’s right, Bumgarner is 0-4 and his team record is 0-6 this season. Furthermore, Bumgarner’s team record is 1-6 (-10.1 Units) in July games over the past two seasons.

The Pirates have won eight of their last 10, while the Giants have lost four of their last five. Let’s ride the trends and back the Bucs in this one.

Free MLB Pick: Pirates +122Best Line Offered: YouWager

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