Mining the Diamond: Mets & Bucs Getting Big Value on the Road in Wednesday’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, August 30, 2017 5:02 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2017 5:02 PM UTC

Our underdog plays have been faltering lately but the small favorites have been covering. Let’s reverse that trend and cash both of our MLB picks on Wednesday’s card.

Mets (57-74, -25.0 Units) at Reds (56-76, -49.2 Units)
  • Cincinnati is 3-12 (-10.1 Units) at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Cincinnati is 25-30 (-2.3 Units) after a win this season.
  • Cincinnati is 38-47 (-2.1 Units) in night games this season.
  • Cincinnati’s starter Homer Bailey’s team record is 1-10 (-10.5 Units) at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over his career.
  • New York is 22-14 (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • New York is 13-1 (+12.2 Units) against the Reds over the last three seasons.

The Mets were one of two of our MLB picks last night and the value we thought we were getting proved to be fool’s gold as the Reds put a good ol’ fashioned whoppin’ on New York in what resulted in a 14-4 victory. However, we won’t get fooled again as we believe New York is poised to avenge that loss against Cincinnati’s starter Homer Bailey.

The veteran hurler clocks in with a 1-2 record in his four career starts against the Mets with an ERA of 7.15 and a WHIP of 1.85. But more importantly, Bailey has been horrendous this season when pitching in front of the home crowd with a 0-5 team record and a whopping 12.11 ERA to go along with a bloated 2.28 WHIP. Let’s fade Bailey here and cash with the underdog Mets.

Free MLB Picks: Mets +123Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Pirates (63-70, -6.8 Units) at Cubs (71-60, -18.3 Units)
  • Chicago is 51-50 (-26.1 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Chicago is 35-35 (-17.6 Units) after a win this season.
  • Chicago’s starter Jose Quintana’s career team record is 34-51 (-21.7 Units) against division opponents.
  • Pittsburgh is 52-51 (+5.5 Units) over the last three seasons when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
  • Pittsburgh is 56-44 (+11.8 Units) against left-handed starters over the last three seasons.
  • Pittsburgh’s starter Ivan Nova is 2-0 in his two career starts against the Cubs with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.84.

The visiting Pirates are looking for a sweep tonight in Chicago and we say they’ll get it. The MLB odds are calling us and we are answering because Pittsburgh’s starter Ivan Nova has demonstrated in his two meetings with the Cubs that he is undaunted, winning both games and looking razor sharp in doing so. In addition, Chicago’s Jose Quintana is coming off a brutal outing in which he surrendered six earned runs over five innings of work to the Phillies’ anemic offense, resulting in a 7-1 setback. Let’s back our second road dog of the day and cash with the Bucs.

Free MLB Picks: Pirates +185Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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