Mining the Diamond: Marlins & Royals Poised to Cash in Monday’s MLB Picks

Mining the Diamond: Division Leaders Rule on Thursday Night’s MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Monday, July 31, 2017 3:29 PM GMT

Monday, Jul. 31, 2017 3:29 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column focusing on pitching matchups, historical trends and the value rendered from the MLB odds. Let’s begin the week with two winners right now!

Nationals (62-41, +1.6 Units) At Marlins (49-54, -2.4 Units)
  • Miami is 31-24 (+12.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
  • Miami’s starting pitcher Jose Urena’s team record is 11-5 (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
  • Miami is 14-11 (+4.6 Units) in July games this season.
  • Washington is 6-5 (-0.6 Units) when playing on Monday this season.
  • Washington is 15-20 (-14.0 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Washington is 6-10 (-6.0 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

Although a series sweep over the Reds eluded the Marlins in yesterday 6-4 setback, Miami has been playing well as of late. The Marlins are also 13-9 (+5.9 Units) against the Nats over the last three seasons, which bodes well for the home dog today. Let’s also take a look at the trends working against Washington’s starting pitcher today:

  • Gio Gonzalez’s team record is 6-12 (-10.8 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Gio Gonzalez’s team record is 0-8 (-11.9 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.
  • Gio Gonzalez’s team record is 18-26 (-20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.

Let’s back the Marlins at home in our MLB picks where they have won three of their last four and cash a ticket.

Free MLB Pick: Marlins +122Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Royals (55-48, +13.9 Units) At Orioles (50-54, -4.7 Units)
  • Baltimore is 4-9 (-5.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
  • Baltimore is 24-35 (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • Baltimore is 11-14 (-3.3 Units) in July games this season.
  • Kansas City is 6-0 (+7.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
  • Kansas City is 32-23 (+13.1 Units) after a win this season.
  • Kansas City’s starting pitcher Danny Duffy’s team record is 12-3 (+9.8 Units) in July games over the last two seasons.

The Royals are 3-0 (+3.3 Units) against the Orioles this season and are on a torrid streak, winning 10 of their last 11 games. Kansas City’s starter Danny Duffy is 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over his last three starts and 12-3 (+9.8 Units) in July games over the last two seasons. Conversely, O’s starter Ubaldo Jimenez takes a 0-3 mark and an 8.40 ERA with a 1.87 WHIP into this meeting and is 2-11 (-10.1 Units) in July games over the last three seasons.

The MLB odds are certainly tempting when you consider our power rating has the Royals as -158 favorites. Watch the Royals and Duffy win this one tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City -100Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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