Mining the Diamond: Marlins Primed to Sweep and Astros Ready for Launch in Sunday's MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond July 30

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, July 30, 2017 3:48 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column that studies the pitching matchups, historical trends and the prices on each and every game in order to deliver two top selections. Let's cash a pair on Sunday to end the week in style.

Reds (41-63, -14.8 Units) at Marlins (49-53, -1.4 Units)

* Miami is 13-5 (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

* Miami is 25-16 (+11.0 Units) when playing on Sunday over the last two seasons.

* Miami is 5-1 (+4.2 Units) against the Reds this season.

* Cincinnati is 3-16 (-12.5 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Cincinnati is 6-18 (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

* Cincinnati is 1-5 (-4.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

The Marlins find themselves coming perilously close to respectability, winning four straight and seven of their last nine, to close within shouting distance of a .500 record. Although being labeled average is not the goal in professional sports, it beats dwelling at the bottom of the proverbial barrel. Speaking of which, Miami's opponent today is in danger of doing just that as the Reds find themselves in the midst of a shame spiral with six consecutive losses and nine of their last 10 ending in defeat. The Marlins have contributed to that drought by winning the first three games of this series and looking for a sweep today.

The Marlins are a stunning 9-1 (+8.6 Units) versus the Reds in all games played in Miami over the last three seasons. We expect that trend to continue as Miami's starting pitcher Daniel Straily has a few things going in his direction today.

Dan Straily's team record is 19-8 (+12.8 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.

Dan Straily's team record is 14-3 (+13.7 Units) in day games over the last two seasons.

Dan Straily's team record is 10-3 (+8.9 Units) in home games after a win over the last two seasons.

Let's break out the brooms and watch the Marlins sweep a dismal and declining Reds team in our MLB picks for Sunday.

Free MLB Picks: Marlins -110Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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 Astros (68-35, +20.6 Units) at Tigers (46-56, -12.6 Units)

* Detroit is  7-13 (-8.7 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Detroit is 17-27 (-13.4 Units) after a win this season.

* Detroit is 30-43 (-13.9 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Houston is 21-8 (+12.6 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

* Houston is 14-4 (+9.2 Units) on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

* Houston is 25-8 (+13.7 Units) after a loss this season.

The best team in baseball has not lost many games this season but they dropped one last night in the second of this three-game set with Detroit. Another factor in lowering the MLB odds on the Astros today pertains to the absences of All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa and more recently George Springer, the team's starting center fielder. However, we won't let a few injuries to some key pieces deter us from grabbing value, particularly when we consider that Detroit's starter Justin Verlander's team record is 3-11 (-10.9 Units) when playing on Sunday over the last three seasons. Go 'Stros and back Houston at a palatable price.

Free MLB Picks: Astros -115Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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