Mining the Diamond: Major Value with Padres & Rangers in Thursday’s MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond July 20

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, July 20, 2017 3:19 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a daily MLB picks column focusing on pitching matchups, historical trends and the value reflected on the respective teams. Let’s look at Thursday’s card and sweep a pair!

Padres (40-54, -2.6 Units) at Giants (37-59, -24.2 Units)
  • San Diego is 21-18 (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • San Diego is 23-20 (+12.2 Units) after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.
  • San Diego is 4-2 (+2.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of this season.
  • San Francisco is 81-91 (-24.0 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • San Francisco is 24-41 (-20.4 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • San Francisco is 12-27 (-19.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

In a battle between these NL West cellar dwellers one team has to win, and in the series last week between the Padres and Giants it was San Diego taking two of three. The MLB odds are skewing heavily towards the Giants as they are coming off a surprisingly successful series in which they won two of three over the AL Central leading Indians. Conversely, the Padres were swept in their three-game set in Colorado. Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for San Francisco and this will be his first home start since his bike accident three months ago. The public is swooning and thus inflating the value on a lousy Giants’ team.

On the flipside, we have the underrated Jhoulys Chacin whose team record is 3-0 over his last three starts with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The Padres have won Chacin’s last three starts against the Giants, including two this season in which the 29-year-old Venezuelan pitched a combined 15 innings and allowed five earned runs in those victories. The bottom line is that the Giants are simply too lousy to ever lay any serious lumber so we will be the contrarians and back the road pup here…with the better record!

Free MLB Picks: Padres +182Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Rangers (45-49, -1.0 Units) at Orioles (45-49, -4.8 Units)
  • Baltimore is 14-16 (-1.7 Units) against left-handed starters this season.
  • Baltimore’s starter Wade Miley is 1-5 when starting against the Rangers with an ERA of 5.75 and a WHIP of 1.352.
  • Baltimore is 5-5 (-0.5 Units) at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
  • Texas is 25-16 (+13.1 Units) when playing on Thursday over the last three seasons.
  • Texas is 23-13 (+13.6 Units) after allowing 10 runs or more over the last three seasons.
  • Texas is 25-16 (+13.7 Units) after three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.

The Rangers have dropped their last four games and have been throttled in the last two by a combined score of 22-3. It looks dire for them tonight against a team that has won all three of the first four games of this series. However, Wade Miley is on the mound for the O’s and he is a one-man streak killer. Conversely, Texas’ Cole Hamels has a sparkling 0.82 ERA and an equally stellar 0.50 WHIP over his last three starts. This is a huge pitching mismatch when you consider Wade Miley trots a bloated 11.24 ERA and a 2.75 WHIP over his last three appearances into this one.

The power rating on this game has the Rangers as -171 favorites, where the current odds make this a veritable coin flip. Back the Rangers in your MLB picks and cash that ticket!

Free MLB Picks: Rangers +100Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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