Mining the Diamond: Live Dogs Set to Bite in our MLB Picks

Justin Verlander talking to team mate

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, May 25, 2017 3:40 PM GMT

Thursday, May. 25, 2017 3:40 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is on a 4-0 run in our picks and now turns its attention to Thursday’s slate of Major League Baseball. Let’s review the MLB odds, pitching matchups, and historical trends and keep on cashing!

Padres (17-31-11.2 units) vs. Mets (19-25, -11.6 units)
  • New York is 11-14 (-8.5 units) in home games this season.

  • New York is 9-15 (-8.8 units) after a loss this season.

  • New York is 24-29 (-17.2 Units) in home games after a loss over the last two seasons.

  • New York is 16-20 (-9.1 units) against right-handers this season.

  • San Diego is averaging four runs per game on the road, a full run higher than at home.

  • San Diego is 8-7 (+2.7 Units) against the Mets over the last three seasons.

This is solely a value play, not a ringing endorsement of the San Diego Padres. The Mets are simply too heavily favored to ignore the return on the Padres. San Diego defeated New York last night by the score of 6-5 and has Dinelson Lamet set to start the series finale. This will be the major league debut for Lamet, who is 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA at Triple-A El Paso.

Therefore, I understand why the Padres are the underdog but let’s not forget that the Mets are 19-25 on the season, have a -22 run differential, a sub. 500 mark at home and are actually 7-8 against San Diego over their last 15 meetings. These teams are not far apart talent-wise which is why we see value and opportunity with the Padres.

 

Free MLB Pick: Padres +188Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Tigers (22-23, -0.6 units) vs. Astros (31-16, +10.4 units)
  • Houston is 14-22 (-12.5 units) when playing on Thursdays over the last three seasons.

  • Houston’s starter Michael Fiers’ team record is 17-24 (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over his career.

  • Houston is averaging 4.2 runs at home this season, almost a full run below their away scoring.

  • Detroit is 95-84 (+10.2 units) after a win over the last three seasons.

  • Detroit is 12-10 (+1.6 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

  • Detroit’s starter Justin Verlander is 4-0 when starting against the Astros with an ERA of 2.05 and a WHIP of 0.931 over his career.

The truth is we expected the oddsmakers to be much more bullish on the Astros but the fact that Houston is a relatively small favorite only confirms that we’re on the sharp side in this one. Justin Verlander has had tremendous success against Houston throughout his career and proved it again in his last outing in which he pitched nine full innings, holding the Astros to two runs on five hits in a 3-2 victory back in July of 2016. 

Houston is without the services of starting catcher Brian McCann while shortstop Carlos Correa may be sidelined again with a lingering illness. Detroit claimed a 6-3 victory last night and we expect they will even this four-game set with another win tonight. Let’s back the road dog in our MLB Picks in this matchup.

 

Free MLB Pick: Tigers +111Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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