Mining the Diamond: Live Dog & Home Chalk Give us a Twin Killing in Sunday's MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, June 11, 2017 3:04 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 11, 2017 3:04 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond had two underdogs yesterday but only one of them cashed as we roll into Sunday with our two top MLB picks based on pitching matchups, historical trends, and the MLB odds.

Tigers (29-32, -4.8 units) vs. Red Sox (34-27, +0.5 units)

* Boston is 19-10 (+4.8 units) at home this season.

* Boston is 3-1 (+2.0 units) at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.

* Boston is 7-2 (+3.4 units) when playing on Sunday this season.

* Detroit is 16-20 (-3.9 units) in night games this season.

* Detroit is 13-20 (-6.3 units) on the road this season.

* Detroit is 0-2 (-2.0 units) on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.

The Red Sox have their brooms ready, prepared to sweep this series from the Tigers and inch closer to the top spot in the AL East. Boston has outscored Detroit 16-6 in the first two games and we expect that margin to grow after this one is through. Tigers' starter Daniel Norris has been barely serviceable this season with a 2-4 record and a 4.47 ERA but his three career starts against the Red Sox have been woeful, as evidenced by his team's record of 0-3 (-3.2 units) coupled with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.97 in those three performances.

His counter number, Drew Pomeranz, has been a pleasant surprise for Boston with a 6-3 mark and a 4.02 ERA. In his two career starts versus Detroit, both coming last season, Pomeranz acquitted himself quite well with a 1-1 record and a 2.00 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. Let's back the home chalk whose MLB odds should be at least 30 cents higher, thus giving us tremendous value here.


Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -151Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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White Sox (26-34, -0.2 units) vs. Indians (30-29, -15.0 units)

* Cleveland is 1-6 (-11.4 units) as a home favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

* Cleveland is 15-17 (-13.6 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

* Cleveland is 10-14 (-13.0 Units) against left-handed starters this season.

* Chicago's starter Jose Quintana is 7-4 when starting against the Indians with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.179.

* Chicago is 12-9 (+5.7 units) in day games this season.

* Chicago is 18-17 (+6.4 units) against division opponents this season.

Allow me to get straight to the point. The odds on the Cleveland Indians are simply way too high at over -200. While it is true the White Sox bear no resemblance to the elite of the league it should be noted that neither do the 2017 Indians. The disparity between the two clubs is not that severe to warrant this inflated line and although Chicago starter Jose Quintana has struggled recently, his performances against the Tribe have been better than good with a 7-4 record and a 2.77 ERA. Conversely, Cleveland's starter Carlos Carrasco has not fared well over the years against Chicago with a 4-9 record and an ERA of 4.97.

This is the rubber match between the clubs after Chicago evened the series with a 5-3 win last night. Grab the juice that the oddsmakers are so generously giving us and back the road pup in your MLB picks for Sunday afternoon.

 Free MLB Pick: White Sox +168Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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