Mining the Diamond: Keeping the Streak Alive with 2 Home Teams

martin perez rangers

Swinging Johnson

Monday, April 24, 2017 3:01 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 24, 2017 3:01 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is on an 8-0 tear over the last four days, and we will peruse the MLB odds and look to sweep another two games on Monday’s MLB slate.

Twins (8-10, -2.7 units) At Rangers (9-10, -1.4 units)
  • Texas is 51-27 (+25.4 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Texas is 59-34 (+17.7 Units) in home games over the last two seasons.
  • Texas is 77-53 (+26.0 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • Texas is 61-42 (+18.7 Units) after a win over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 23-42 (-16.3 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 37-75 (-31.3 Units) after a loss over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 22-37 (-15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.
  • Minnesota is 0-5 when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

The Twins will give the ball to veteran Phil Hughes (2-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), who was slammed in his last start against the Indians where he surrendered six runs on eight hits in just three-plus innings before he was mercifully yanked in the 11-4 loss. Hughes is 2-5 when starting against the Rangers in his career with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.266.

Texas will counter with Martin Perez (1-2, 3.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP), who stumbled in his last outing at Oakland in which he allowed four runs on seven hits in the 9-1 setback. However, Perez dazzled in his first two starts, allowing a combined one run in 10-plus innings to Oakland (his season debut) and Seattle. The MLB odds makers are favoring the home team in this one, and rightfully so as the Rangers are in the Top 10 in runs scored in the majors and seeking their fifth straight win.

Free MLB Pick: Rangers -132Best Line Offered: Skybook

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Rays (10-10, +0.2 units) At Orioles (12-5, +6.8 units)
  • Baltimore is 8-2 (+6.2 units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Baltimore is 9-2 (+7.1 units) in night games this season.
  • Baltimore is 10-4 (+6.4 units) against division opponents this season.
  • Baltimore’s starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)
  • Tampa Bay is 1-6 (-4.9 units) in road games this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 41-62 (-22.4 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
  • Tampa Bay’s starter Chris Archer is 5-14 (-10.9 Units) after a loss over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)
  • Archer is 4-16 (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The public will view this as a pitching mismatch with Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer (2-0, 32.0 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) having the upper-hand over Baltimore’s Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 5.51 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). But the historical numbers suggest a completely different analysis with Jimenez sporting an 11-0 (+11 units) team mark when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons and has a 16-8 team mark (+10.3 Units) against division opponents over that span. In addition, Jimenez’s teams are 6-2 (+4.8 units) when he starts against the Rays, while Tampa Bay is 5-7 (-3.6 units) when Archer takes the hill against Baltimore. Let’s back another home team in our MLB picks tonight with the Orioles.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +107Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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