Mining the Diamond: Home Dogs Howl Tonight in our MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, May 30, 2017 2:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 30, 2017 2:38 PM UTC

We did the splits yesterday but thanks to having two underdogs in our MLB picks, we ended the day plus units. Let’s take a look at Tuesday’s slate of games and cash those tickets!

Diamondbacks (31-21, +9.4 units) vs. Pirates (23-28, -2.3 units)
  • Arizona is 6-10 (-4.6 units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

  • Arizona is 10-14 (-3.3 units) in road games this season.

  • Arizona is 4-13 (-10.4 units) versus Pittsburgh over the last three seasons.

  • Pittsburgh is 6-1 (+4.0 Units) versus Arizona in games played at Pittsburgh over the last three seasons.

  • Pittsburgh is 46-34 (+11.3 units) against left-handed starters over the last three seasons.

  • Pittsburgh is 115-84 (+21.4 units) after a win over the last three seasons.

In all sports there are some teams that simply match up well against other teams, despite what the records and rosters reveal. This is one of those examples as Pittsburgh has had tremendous success over the Diamondbacks, highlighted by their 6-1 (+4.0 units) mark at home against the Snakes over the last three seasons. Last night that betting trend continued as Pittsburgh came out on top of a 4-3 decision in the first of a three-game set. Arizona has now lost their last three consecutive games.

Despite Arizona’s starter Robbie Ray’s most recent outings in which he blanked both the Padres and Brewers on the road, tossing a combined 14 plus innings of impressive pitching, his record against the Bucs is equally as unimpressive. Ray’s team record is s 0-4 (-4.5 units) when starting against the Pirates with an ERA of 7.50 and a WHIP of 2.000. Conversely, Pittsburgh’s starter Ivan Nova’s team record is 2-0 in his pair of starts versus Arizona. The Pirates have won his last three starts and based on all the trends, that streak should continue which is why Pittsburgh will be included in our MLB picks for Tuesday night.

Free MLB Pick: Pirates +100Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Yankees (29-19, +7.4 units) vs. Orioles (26-23, +1.7 units)
  • Baltimore is 18-10 (+8.3 Units) against division opponents this season.

  • Baltimore is 65-49 (+16.0 Units) after a win over the last two seasons.

  • Baltimore is 6-1 (+4.6 units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5.

  • New York is 16-34 (-16.0 Units) in road games against division opponents over the last two seasons.

  • New York’s starter Luis Severino’s team record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) when starting against Baltimore with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.200.

Value is the name of the game when making your MLB picks which is why the MLB odds on this matchup have me a bit perplexed. The O’s edged the Bombers last night 3-2 and are now 16-6 (+9.4 units) in the 22 games played at Camden Yards over the last three seasons. In addition, their starter Chris Tillman’s team record is 13-6 (+10.7 units) in the 19 games he has started against the Yankees. Below are some more compelling reasons to back Tillman and the Orioles tonight:

Tillman’s team record is:

  • 24-11 (+13.6 Units) in all games over the last two seasons.

  • 61-36 (+20.4 Units) in home games over his career.

  • 13-3 (+11.7 Units) against division opponents over the last two seasons.

  • 77-56 (+26.3 Units) in night games over his career.

  • 62-43 (+22.5 Units) line after a win over his career.

  • 11-4 (+9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

I can’t argue with these stats and will simply back Chris Tillman at home tonight and watch this home dog cash.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +130Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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