Mining the Diamond: Home Cookin’ Tastes Mighty Fine

texas rangers

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, April 25, 2017 3:39 PM GMT

We did the splits Monday, but Mining the Diamond is 9-1 over the last 10 games and today we review the MLB odds and look to lock on to a pair of winners in Tuesday night’s action.

Twins (9-10, -1.5 units) At Rangers (9-11, -2.7 units)
  • Texas is 85-59 (+29.4 units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the past three seasons.
  • Texas is 33-20 (+17.2 units) when playing on a Tuesday over the past three seasons.
  • Texas is 142-105 (+51.2 units) when playing in night games over the past three seasons.
  • Texas is 134-105 (37 units) against right-handers over the past three seasons.
  • Minnesota is 1-5 (-5.0 units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
  • Minnesota’s starter Ervin Santana is 3-14 (-12.3 Units) in night games over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)
  • Minnesota’s starter Ervin Santana is 2-13 (-12.9 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)
  • Minnesota is 42-86 (-39.1 Units) against right-handed starters over the last two seasons.

I am going back to the poisoned well with the Rangers tonight after they disappointed in a 3-2 loss to the Twins on Monday. However, I feel the MLB odds makers are giving us excellent value with the home club due primarily to the extraordinary pitching this season of Minnesota’s Ervin Santana. But let’s be realistic and know that the 34-year-old veteran owns a career 4.05 ERA and whose first name is Ervin, and not Johan. He will regress to the mean, and the Rangers’ big bats coupled with a decent performance out of their starter Andrew Cashner should bring us into the winner’s circle.

Free MLB Pick: Rangers +105Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Blue Jays (5-14, -12.2 units) At Cardinals (9-10, -2.0 units)
  • St. Louis is 150-105 vs. right-handed starters over the past three seasons.
  • St. Louis is 136-101 in night games over the past three seasons.
  • St. Louis is 3-0 when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
  • St. Louis is 4-2 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5.
  • Toronto is 4-11 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Toronto is 3-10 in night games this season.
  • Toronto is 6-21 as a road underdog of between +125 to +175 over the past three seasons.
  • Toronto is 27-40 in April over the past three seasons.

Marco Estrada (0-1, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has performed well for the Jays this season, but his team has done quite the opposite. Yet historically Estrada has gotten roughed up when playing the Cardinals and is 0-4 when starting against St. Louis with an ERA of 5.52 and a WHIP of 1.467, and his team's record is 2-6 (-3.4 units) in these starts. In addition, the Jays now have Troy Tulowitzki added to the DL to keep big-bopper Josh Donaldson company. The Cards will send Michael Wacha (2-1, 2.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) to the hill, and we will count on the big right-hander to keep this Toronto lineup in check. We see the Cards as big winners tonight in our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -137Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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